Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29683424›Full record

ArticleeLife2018

Stochastic processes constrain the within and between host evolution of influenza virus.

John T McCrone, Robert J Woods, Emily T Martin, Ryan E Malosh, Arnold S Monto, Adam S Lauring

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in eLife, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 160 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
160citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

160 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Trial
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  11. Update on the Efficacy of Vaccination on Host Immunity to Influenza Virus Infection.International archives of allergy and immunology · 2026
    Review
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Rapid evolution reveals long-range spread of SARS-CoV-2.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026
    Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

100 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

John T McCroneDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-9846-8917
Robert J WoodsDivision of Infectious Diseases, Department of Internal Medicine, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States.
Emily T MartinDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States.
Ryan E MaloshDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-3546-5935
Arnold S MontoDepartment of Epidemiology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States.
Adam S LauringDepartment of Microbiology and Immunology, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, United States.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-2906-8335

Funding

PREDOCTORAL TRAINING IN GENETICST32GM007544 · NIGMS · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI MORAN, JOHN V. · 1985 to 2022
$11.3M
Core_plus_Option_A_B_Proposal for Influenza Vaccine Effectiveness ResearchU01IP000474 · IP · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI MONTO, ARNOLD S · 2011 to 2015
$6.2M
Fidelity, robustness, and diversity in RNA virus evolution and pathogenesisR01AI118886 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI LAURING, ADAM · 2016 to 2020
$2.0M
Household Studies of Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses - Supplement: EV D68 SurveillanceR01AI097150 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI MONTO, ARNOLD S, OHMIT, SUZANNE · 2012 to 2015
$2.0M
Population Dynamics of Rotavirus: A Combined Theoretical, Bioinformatic and Laboratory Based ApproachK08AI119182 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI WOODS, ROBERT J · 2016 to 2020
$960k
Household Studies of Influenza and Other Respiratory VirusesR56AI097150 · NIAID · UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN AT ANN ARBOR · PI GORDON, AUBREE L, MONTO, ARNOLD S · 2016 to 2016
$574k
CDC HHS U01 IP00474Doris Duke Charitable Foundation CSDA 2013105NCIRD CDC HHS U01 IP000474NIAID NIH HHS K08 AI119182NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI097150NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI118886NIGMS NIH HHS T32 GM007544
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

The evolutionary dynamics of influenza virus ultimately derive from processes that take place within and between infected individuals. Here we define influenza virus dynamics in human hosts through sequencing of 249 specimens from 200 individuals collected over 6290 person-seasons of observation. Because these viruses were collected from individuals in a prospective community-based cohort, they are broadly representative of natural infections with seasonal viruses. Consistent with a neutral model of evolution, sequence data from 49 serially sampled individuals illustrated the dynamic turnover of synonymous and nonsynonymous single nucleotide variants and provided little evidence for positive selection of antigenic variants. We also identified 43 genetically-validated transmission pairs in this cohort. Maximum likelihood optimization of multiple transmission models estimated an effective transmission bottleneck of 1-2 genomes. Our data suggest that positive selection is inefficient at the level of the individual host and that stochastic processes dominate the host-level evolution of influenza viruses.

Indexed as

Evolution, MolecularHumansInfluenza, HumanOrthomyxoviridaePoint MutationPolymorphism, Single NucleotideSelection, GeneticSequence Analysis, DNAStochastic Processesbottleneckdiversityevolutionevolutionary biologygenomicsinfectious diseaseinfluenza virusmicrobiologytransmissionvirus

Identifiers

PMID29683424
PMCPMC5933925

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.