ArticleEnvironmental health perspectives2018
Modeling the Present and Future Incidence of Pediatric Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease Associated with Ambient Temperature in Mainland China.
Article in Environmental health perspectives, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
17 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 53 citations in OpenAlex.
- The effect and attributable risk of daily temperature on category C infectious diarrhea in Guangdong Province, China.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2022Pooled it
- Scarlet fever and meteorological exposures in Jiangsu, China: a time-stratified case-crossover study.BMC public health · 2025Article
- The association between humidex and tuberculosis: a two-stage modelling nationwide study in China.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Health Co-Benefits of Environmental Changes in the Context of Carbon Peaking and Carbon Neutrality in China.Health data science · 2024Review
- Article
- Short-term effects of tropical cyclones on the incidence of dengue: a time-series study in Guangzhou, China.Parasites & vectors · 2022Article
- Impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 interventions on the incidence of hand, foot, and mouth disease in mainland China.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2022Article
- Association of long-term exposure to ambient air pollution with the number of tuberculosis cases notified: a time-series study in Hong Kong.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2022Article
- Seasonality and Meteorological Factors Associated With Different Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease: Serotype-Specific Analysis From 2010 to 2018 in Zhejiang Province, China.Frontiers in microbiology · 2022Article
- Impact of Temperature and Rainfall on Typhoid/Paratyphoid Fever in Taizhou, China: Effect Estimation and Vulnerable Group Identification.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2021Article
- Projecting heat-related excess mortality under climate change scenarios in China.Nature communications · 2021Article
- The burden of childhood hand-foot-mouth disease morbidity attributable to relative humidity: a multicity study in the Sichuan Basin, China.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Seasonal Distribution and Meteorological Factors Associated with Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease among Children in Xi'an, Northwestern China.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2020Article
- Daily Temperature and Bacillary Dysentery: Estimated Effects, Attributable Risks, and Future Disease Burden in 316 Chinese Cities.Environmental health perspectives · 2020Article
- Short-Term Effects of Meteorological Factors and Air Pollutants on Hand, Foot and Mouth Disease among Children in Shenzhen, China, 2009-2017.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Time-series modelling and forecasting of hand, foot and mouth disease cases in China from 2008 to 2018.Epidemiology and infection · 2019Article
- More Cases of Hand, Foot, and Mouth Disease in China: A Consequence of Climate Change?Environmental health perspectives · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
- Commented on by
Authors and funding
11 authors at 6 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundThere is limited evidence about the association between ambient temperature and the incidence of pediatric hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) nationwide in China.
objectivesWe examined the childhood temperature-HFMD associations across mainland China, and we projected the change in HFMD cases due to projected temperature change by the 2090s.
methodsData on daily HFMD (children 0-14 y old) counts and weather were collected from 362 sites during 2009-2014. Daily temperature by the 2090s was downscaled under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios. Temperature-HFMD associations were quantified using a two-stage Poisson regression with a distributed lag nonlinear model. The impact of changes in temperature on the incidence of HFMD was estimated by combining the fitted temperature-HFMD associations with projected temperatures under each scenario, assuming a constant population structure. Sensitivity analyses were performed to assess the influence of primary model assumptions.
resultsDuring 2009-2014, >11 million HFMD cases were reported. In most regions, the temperature-HFMD association had an inverted U shape with a peak at approximately 20°C, but the association leveled off or continued to increase in the Inner Mongolia and Northeast regions. When estimates were pooled across all regions and the population size was held constant, the projected incidence of HFMD increased by 3.2% [95% empirical confidence interval (eCI): −13.5%, 20.0%] and 5.3% (95% eCI: −33.3%, 44.0%) by the 2090s under the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios, respectively. However, regional projections suggest that HFMD may decrease with climate change in temperate areas of central and eastern China.
conclusionOur estimates suggest that the association between temperature and HFMD varies across China and that the future impact of climate change on HFMD incidence will vary as well. Other factors, including changes in the size of the population at risk (children 0-14 y old) will also influence future HFMD trends. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP3062.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.