Trial reportEBioMedicine2018
A Validated Clinical Risk Prediction Model for Lung Cancer in Smokers of All Ages and Exposure Types: A HUNT Study.
Trial report in EBioMedicine, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 41 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
41 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Predictive performance of risk prediction models for lung cancer incidence in Western and Asian countries: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Scientific reports · 2025Pooled it
- Revolutionizing Lung Cancer Detection: A High-Accuracy Machine Learning Framework for Early Diagnosis.BioMed research international · 2025Pooled it
- Methodological conduct of prognostic prediction models developed using machine learning in oncology: a systematic review.BMC medical research methodology · 2022Pooled it
- A Comparison of Web-Based Cancer Risk Calculators That Inform Shared Decision-making for Lung Cancer Screening.Journal of general internal medicine · 2021Pooled it
- 'Reduced' HUNT model outperforms NLST and NELSON study criteria in predicting lung cancer in the Danish screening trial.BMJ open respiratory research · 2019Trial
- Ever-smokers in Norway and lung cancer: median time from self-reported smoking debut to lung cancer diagnosis in 11 prospective population studies (CONOR).ERJ open research · 2026Article
- Blood-based DNA methylation marker model for short-term and long-term lung cancer risk prediction.BMC medicine · 2026Article
- Lung cancer screening in transition: highlights from the 3rd Oslo Lung Cancer Symposium, 2025.European clinical respiratory journal · 2026Article
- External Validation of Lung Cancer Prediction Models Combining Epidemiological Predictors in Chinese Ever and Never Smokers: Guangzhou Biobank Cohort Study.Cancer medicine · 2025Article
- Association between age and lung cancer risk: evidence from lung lobar radiomics.BMC medical imaging · 2025Article
- Article
- Assessment and recalibration of seventeen lung cancer risk prediction models in approximately one million Chinese population utilising healthcare big data: a retrospective cohort analysis.The Lancet regional health. Western Pacific · 2025Article
- Plasma miR-145-5p Levels and Risk of Future Cancer-Results from the HUNT Study.International journal of molecular sciences · 2025Article
- Ensemble machine learning models for lung cancer incidence risk prediction in the elderly: a retrospective longitudinal study.BMC cancer · 2025Article
- Evaluation of risk prediction models to select lung cancer screening participants in Europe: a prospective cohort consortium analysis.The Lancet. Digital health · 2024Article
- The HUNT lung-SNP model: genetic variants plus clinical variables improve lung cancer risk assessment over clinical models.Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology · 2024Article
- Promising microRNAs in pre-diagnostic serum associated with lung cancer up to eight years before diagnosis: a HUNT study.Journal of cancer research and clinical oncology · 2024Article
- Improving Lung Cancer Screening Selection: The HUNT Lung Cancer Risk Model for Ever-Smokers Versus the NELSON and 2021 United States Preventive Services Task Force Criteria in the Cohort of Norway: A Population-Based Prospective Study.JTO clinical and research reports · 2024Article
- A prediction model for classifying maternal pregnancy smoking using California state birth certificate information.Paediatric and perinatal epidemiology · 2024Article
- Lung Cancer Risk Prediction Nomogram in Nonsmoking Chinese Women: Retrospective Cross-sectional Cohort Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2023Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Lung cancer causes >1·6 million deaths annually, with early diagnosis being paramount to effective treatment. Here we present a validated risk assessment model for lung cancer screening. The prospective HUNT2 population study in Norway examined 65,237 people aged >20years in 1995-97. After a median of 15·2years, 583 lung cancer cases had been diagnosed; 552 (94·7%) ever-smokers and 31 (5·3%) never-smokers. We performed multivariable analyses of 36 candidate risk predictors, using multiple imputation of missing data and backwards feature selection with Cox regression. The resulting model was validated in an independent Norwegian prospective dataset of 45,341 ever-smokers, in which 675 lung cancers had been diagnosed after a median follow-up of 11·6years. Our final HUNT Lung Cancer Model included age, pack-years, smoking intensity, years since smoking cessation, body mass index, daily cough, and hours of daily indoors exposure to smoke. External validation showed a 0·879 concordance index (95% CI [0·866-0·891]) with an area under the curve of 0·87 (95% CI [0·85-0·89]) within 6years. Only 22% of ever-smokers would need screening to identify 81·85% of all lung cancers within 6years. Our model of seven variables is simple, accurate, and useful for screening selection.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.