Infant abuse diagnosis associated with abusive head trauma criteria: incidence increase due to overdiagnosis?

Background: The hypothesis of this study is that the diagnosis of infant abuse is associated with criteria for shaken baby syndrome (SBS)/abusive head trauma (AHT), and that that changes in incidence of abuse diagnosis in infants may be due to increased awareness of SBS/AHT criteria. Methods: This was a population-based register study. Setting: Register study using the Swedish Patient Register, Medical Birth Register, and Cause of Death Register. The diagnosis of infant abuse was based on the International Classification of Diseases, 9th and 10th revision. Participants: All children born in Sweden during 1987-2014 with a follow-up until 1 year of age (N = 2 868 933). SBS/AHT criteria: subdural haemorrhage, cerebral contusion, skull fracture, convulsions, retinal haemorrhage, fractures rib and long bones. Outcomes: Incidence, rate ratios, aetiologic fractions and Probit regression analysis. Results: Diagnosis of infant abuse was strongly associated with SBS/AHT criteria, but not risk exposure as region, foreign-born mother, being born preterm, multiple birth and small for gestational age. The incidence of infant abuse has increased tenfold in Sweden since the 1990s and has doubled since 2008, from 12.0 per 100 000 infants during 1997-2007 to 26.5/100 000 during 2008-2014, with pronounced regional disparities. Conclusions: Diagnosis of infant abuse is related to SBS/AHT criteria. The increase in incidence coincides with increased medical preparedness to make a diagnosis of SBS/AHT. Hidden statistics and a real increase in abuse are less plausible. Whether the increase is due to overdiagnosis cannot be answered with certainty, but the possibility raises ethical and medico-legal concerns.