Estimating parametric phenotypes that determine anthesis date in Zea mays: Challenges in combining ecophysiological models with genetics.

Ecophysiological crop models encode intra-species behaviors using parameters that are presumed to summarize genotypic properties of individual lines or cultivars. These genotype-specific parameters (GSP's) can be interpreted as quantitative traits that can be mapped or otherwise analyzed, as are more conventional traits. The goal of this study was to investigate the estimation of parameters controlling maize anthesis date with the CERES-Maize model, based on 5,266 maize lines from 11 plantings at locations across the eastern United States. High performance computing was used to develop a database of 356 million simulated anthesis dates in response to four CERES-Maize model parameters. Although the resulting estimates showed high predictive value (R2 = 0.94), three issues presented serious challenges for use of GSP's as traits. First (expressivity), the model was unable to express the observed data for 168 to 3,339 lines (depending on the combination of site-years), many of which ended up sharing the same parameter value irrespective of genetics. Second, for 2,254 lines, the model reproduced the data, but multiple parameter sets were equally effective (equifinality). Third, parameter values were highly dependent (p<10-6919) on the sets of environments used to estimate them (instability), calling in to question the assumption that they represent fundamental genetic traits. The issues of expressivity, equifinality and instability must be addressed before the genetic mapping of GSP's becomes a robust means to help solve the genotype-to-phenotype problem in crops.