ArticleStatistical methods in medical research2019
Estimating under-five mortality in space and time in a developing world context.
Article in Statistical methods in medical research, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Geospatial estimation of reproductive, maternal, newborn and child health indicators: a systematic review of methodological aspects of studies based on household surveys.International journal of health geographics · 2020Pooled it
- Asthma hospitalisations and heat exposure in England: a case-crossover study during 2002-2019.Thorax · 2023Trial
- Spatial Regulation of Trait-Environment Interactions Shapes Plant Community Functional Patterns in a Tropical Forest.Journal of vegetation science : official organ of the International Association for Vegetation Science · 2026Article
- Small Area Estimation of Education Levels in Low- and Middle-Income Countries.The annals of applied statistics · 2026Article
- TEMPORAL MODELS FOR ESTIMATION AND SHORT-TERM FORECASTING OF NEONATAL MORTALITY RATES IN SUB-SAHARAN AFRICA.The annals of applied statistics · 2026Article
- Toward a Principled Workflow for Prevalence Mapping Using Household Survey Data.Journal of survey statistics and methodology · 2026Article
- Direct-Assisted Bayesian Unit-level Modeling for Small Area Estimation of Rare Event Prevalence.Journal of survey statistics and methodology · 2026Article
- Bayesian probabilistic projections of proportions with limited data: An application to subnational contraceptive method supply shares.PloS one · 2026Article
- BARTSIMP: Flexible spatial covariate modeling and prediction using Bayesian Additive Regression Trees.Spatial and spatio-temporal epidemiology · 2025Article
- An introduction to bayesian spatial smoothing methods for disease mapping: modeling county firearm suicide mortality rates.American journal of epidemiology · 2024Article
- Impact of ignoring sampling design in the prediction of binary health outcomes through logistic regression: evidence from Malawi demographic and health survey under-five mortality data; 2000-2016.BMC public health · 2023Article
- A novel outlier statistic in multivariate survival models and its application to identify unusual under-five mortality sub-districts in Malawi.Journal of applied statistics · 2023Article
- Decomposing County-Level Working-Age Mortality Trends in the United States Between 1999-2001 and 2015-2017.Spatial demography · 2022Article
- A FLEXIBLE BAYESIAN FRAMEWORK TO ESTIMATE AGE- AND CAUSE-SPECIFIC CHILD MORTALITY OVER TIME FROM SAMPLE REGISTRATION DATA.The annals of applied statistics · 2022Article
- Variation in excess all-cause mortality by age, sex, and province during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy.Scientific reports · 2022Article
- Progress towards achieving child survival goals in Kenya after devolution: Geospatial analysis with scenario-based projections, 2015-2025.PLOS global public health · 2022Article
- Harmonizing child mortality data at disparate geographic levels.Statistical methods in medical research · 2021Article
- Space-time modeling of child mortality at the Admin-2 level in a low and middle income countries context.Statistics in medicine · 2021Article
- A Scoping Review of Spatial Analysis Approaches Using Health Survey Data in Sub-Saharan Africa.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2020Article
- Pointless spatial modeling.Biostatistics (Oxford, England) · 2020Article
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6 authors.
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Abstract
Accurate estimates of the under-five mortality rate in a developing world context are a key barometer of the health of a nation. This paper describes a new model to analyze survey data on mortality in this context. We are interested in both spatial and temporal description, that is wishing to estimate under-five mortality rate across regions and years and to investigate the association between the under-five mortality rate and spatially varying covariate surfaces. We illustrate the methodology by producing yearly estimates for subnational areas in Kenya over the period 1980-2014 using data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, which use stratified cluster sampling. We use a binomial likelihood with fixed effects for the urban/rural strata and random effects for the clustering to account for the complex survey design. Smoothing is carried out using Bayesian hierarchical models with continuous spatial and temporally discrete components. A key component of the model is an offset to adjust for bias due to the effects of HIV epidemics. Substantively, there has been a sharp decline in Kenya in the under-five mortality rate in the period 1980-2014, but large variability in estimated subnational rates remains. A priority for future research is understanding this variability. In exploratory work, we examine whether a variety of spatial covariate surfaces can explain the variability in under-five mortality rate. Temperature, precipitation, a measure of malaria infection prevalence, and a measure of nearness to cities were candidates for inclusion in the covariate model, but the interplay between space, time, and covariates is complex.
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