Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29668677›Full record

ArticlePLoS computational biology2018

Bayesian reconstruction of transmission within outbreaks using genomic variants.

Nicola De Maio, Colin J Worby, Daniel J Wilson, Nicole Stoesser

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PLoS computational biology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 51 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
51citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

51 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
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  5. Population sequencing for phylogenetic diversity and transmission analyses.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
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  6. Article
  7. Article
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  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Inferring Viral Transmission Pathways from Within-Host Variation.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023
    Article
  14. Article
  15. ComparingEpidemiology and infection · 2023
    Article
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Molecular source attribution.PLoS computational biology · 2022
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Nicola De MaioNuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-1776-8564
Colin J WorbyDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey, United States of America.
Daniel J WilsonNuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Nicole StoesserNuffield Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.ORCID 0000-0002-4508-7969

Funding

Wellcome Trust
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Pathogen genome sequencing can reveal details of transmission histories and is a powerful tool in the fight against infectious disease. In particular, within-host pathogen genomic variants identified through heterozygous nucleotide base calls are a potential source of information to identify linked cases and infer direction and time of transmission. However, using such data effectively to model disease transmission presents a number of challenges, including differentiating genuine variants from those observed due to sequencing error, as well as the specification of a realistic model for within-host pathogen population dynamics. Here we propose a new Bayesian approach to transmission inference, BadTrIP (BAyesian epiDemiological TRansmission Inference from Polymorphisms), that explicitly models evolution of pathogen populations in an outbreak, transmission (including transmission bottlenecks), and sequencing error. BadTrIP enables the inference of host-to-host transmission from pathogen sequencing data and epidemiological data. By assuming that genomic variants are unlinked, our method does not require the computationally intensive and unreliable reconstruction of individual haplotypes. Using simulations we show that BadTrIP is robust in most scenarios and can accurately infer transmission events by efficiently combining information from genetic and epidemiological sources; thanks to its realistic model of pathogen evolution and the inclusion of epidemiological data, BadTrIP is also more accurate than existing approaches. BadTrIP is distributed as an open source package (https://bitbucket.org/nicofmay/badtrip) for the phylogenetic software BEAST2. We apply our method to reconstruct transmission history at the early stages of the 2014 Ebola outbreak, showcasing the power of within-host genomic variants to reconstruct transmission events.

Indexed as

Bayes TheoremCommunicable DiseasesComputational BiologyComputer SimulationDisease OutbreaksEvolution, MolecularGenetic VariationHemorrhagic Fever, EbolaHost-Pathogen InteractionsHumansModels, GeneticSierra LeoneSoftware

Identifiers

PMID29668677
PMCPMC5927459

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.