ArticleScientific reports2018
Projected effectiveness and added value of HIV vaccination campaigns in South Africa: A modeling study.
Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 23 citations in OpenAlex.
- Infectious Disease Modelling of HIV Prevention Interventions: A Systematic Review and Narrative Synthesis of Compartmental Models.PharmacoEconomics · 2023Pooled it
- Hotspot model shows how location-based superspreading accelerates and reshapes epidemics.PNAS nexus · 2025Article
- HIV vaccination: Navigating the path to a transformative breakthrough-A review of current evidence.Health science reports · 2024Article
- Effect of vaccine efficacy on disease transmission with age-structured.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2022Article
- Bayesian validation framework for dynamic epidemic models.Epidemics · 2021Article
- Predicted Effectiveness of Daily and Nondaily Preexposure Prophylaxis for Men Who Have Sex With Men Based on Sex and Pill-taking Patterns From the Human Immuno Virus Prevention Trials Network 067/ADAPT Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2020Article
- Competing biomedical HIV prevention strategies: potential cost-effectiveness of HIV vaccines and PrEP in Seattle, WA.Journal of the International AIDS Society · 2019Article
- Taking stock of the present and looking ahead: envisioning challenges in the design of future HIV prevention efficacy trials.The lancet. HIV · 2019Review
- The future of a partially effective HIV vaccine: assessing limitations at the population level.International journal of public health · 2019Article
- Article
- Projected effectiveness of HIV detection during early infection and rapid ART initiation among MSM and transgender women in Peru: A modeling study.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2019Article
- Assessing the utility of the tipping point ratio to monitor HIV treatment programmes in the era of universal access to ART.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Promising multi-dose HIV vaccine regimens are being tested in trials in South Africa. We estimated the potential epidemiological and economic impact of HIV vaccine campaigns compared to continuous vaccination, assuming that vaccine efficacy is transient and dependent on immune response. We used a dynamic economic mathematical model of HIV transmission calibrated to 2012 epidemiological data to simulate vaccination with anticipated antiretroviral treatment scale-up in South Africa. We estimate that biennial vaccination with a 70% efficacious vaccine reaching 20% of the sexually active population could prevent 480,000-650,000 HIV infections (13.8-15.3% of all infections) over 10 years. Assuming a launch price of $15 per dose, vaccination was found to be cost-effective, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $13,746 per quality-adjusted life-year as compared to no vaccination. Increasing vaccination coverage to 50% will prevent more infections but is less likely to achieve cost-effectiveness. Campaign vaccination is consistently more effective and costs less than continuous vaccination across scenarios. Results suggest that a partially effective HIV vaccine will have substantial impact on the HIV epidemic in South Africa and offer good value if priced less than $105 for a five-dose series. Vaccination campaigns every two years may offer greater value for money than continuous vaccination reaching the same coverage level.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.