Analyzing medical costs with time-dependent treatment: The nested g-formula.

As medical expenses continue to rise, methods to properly analyze cost outcomes are becoming of increasing relevance when seeking to compare average costs across treatments. Inverse probability weighted regression models have been developed to address the challenge of cost censoring in order to identify intent-to-treat effects (i.e., to compare mean costs between groups on the basis of their initial treatment assignment, irrespective of any subsequent changes to their treatment status). In this paper, we describe a nested g-computation procedure that can be used to compare mean costs between two or more time-varying treatment regimes. We highlight the relative advantages and limitations of this approach when compared with existing regression-based models. We illustrate the utility of this approach as a means to inform public policy by applying it to a simulated data example motivated by costs associated with cancer treatments. Simulations confirm that inference regarding intent-to-treat effects versus the joint causal effects estimated by the nested g-formula can lead to markedly different conclusions regarding differential costs. Therefore, it is essential to prespecify the desired target of inference when choosing between these two frameworks. The nested g-formula should be considered as a useful, complementary tool to existing methods when analyzing cost outcomes.