ArticleRoyal Society open science2018
Bayesian model evidence as a practical alternative to deviance information criterion.
Article in Royal Society open science, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
12 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
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- Comparative Efficacy and Safety of Dopamine Agonists in Advanced Parkinson's Disease With Motor Fluctuations: A Systematic Review and Network Meta-Analysis of Double-Blind Randomized Controlled Trials.Frontiers in neuroscience · 2021Pooled it
- Network Meta-Analysis of Different Clinical Commonly Used Drugs for the Treatment of Hypertrophic Scar and Keloid.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Pooled it
- Proper likelihood functions for parameter estimation in S-shaped models of unperturbed tumor growth.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Delineating maternal influence in regulation of variance in major economic traits of White Leghorns: Bayesian insights.PloS one · 2024Article
- One Standard for All: Uniform Scale for Comparing Individuals and Groups in Hierarchical Bayesian Evidence Accumulation Modeling.Journal of cognition · 2024Article
- Neural mass model-based study of frontal-temporal theta oscillations in human subjects during the performance of a cognitive control task.Annual International Conference of the IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. IEEE Engineering in Medicine and Biology Society. Annual International Conference · 2022Article
- Challenges in estimation, uncertainty quantification and elicitation for pandemic modelling.Epidemics · 2022Article
- When and why direct transmission models can be used for environmentally persistent pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Development of influenza-associated disease burden pyramid in Shanghai, China, 2010-2017: a Bayesian modelling study.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Epidemiology and Regional Predictors of COVID-19 Clusters: A Bayesian Spatial Analysis Through a Nationwide Contact Tracing Data.Frontiers in medicine · 2021Article
- Parental habituation to human disturbance over time reduces fear of humans in coyote offspring.Ecology and evolution · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
2 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
While model evidence is considered by Bayesian statisticians as a gold standard for model selection (the ratio in model evidence between two models giving the Bayes factor), its calculation is often viewed as too computationally demanding for many applications. By contrast, the widely used deviance information criterion (DIC), a different measure that balances model accuracy against complexity, is commonly considered a much faster alternative. However, recent advances in computational tools for efficient multi-temperature Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithms, such as steppingstone sampling (SS) and thermodynamic integration schemes, enable efficient calculation of the Bayesian model evidence. This paper compares both the capability (i.e. ability to select the true model) and speed (i.e. CPU time to achieve a given accuracy) of DIC with model evidence calculated using SS. Three important model classes are considered: linear regression models, mixed models and compartmental models widely used in epidemiology. While DIC was found to correctly identify the true model when applied to linear regression models, it led to incorrect model choice in the other two cases. On the other hand, model evidence led to correct model choice in all cases considered. Importantly, and perhaps surprisingly, DIC and model evidence were found to run at similar computational speeds, a result reinforced by analytically derived expressions.
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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.