Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29656701›Full record

ArticlePublic health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974)

Estimated Cost to a Restaurant of a Foodborne Illness Outbreak.

Sarah M Bartsch, Lindsey Asti, Sindiso Nyathi, Marie L Spiker, Bruce Y Lee

Open access · bronzeAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Public health reports (Washington, D.C. : 1974). The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 12 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
12citing papers in PubMed
3.5field-weighted citation impact, top 7% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

12 citing papers in PubMed, 51 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  12. Challenges of investigating a large food-borne norovirus outbreak across all branches of a restaurant group in the United Kingdom, October 2016.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2019
    Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors at 1 institution in 1 country.

Sarah M Bartsch1 Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Lindsey Asti1 Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Sindiso Nyathi1 Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Marie L Spiker1 Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Bruce Y Lee1 Public Health Computational and Operations Research, Global Obesity Prevention Center, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Johns Hopkins University · US

Funding

MULTILEVEL SYSTEMS-ORIENTED CHILDHOOD OBESITY STUDY IN CHINAU54HD070725 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI WANG, YOUFA · 2011 to 2016
$15.9M
Virtual Population Obesity Prevention (VPOP) Labs: Computational, Multi-Scale Models for Obesity SolutionsU01HD086861 · NICHD · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LEE, BRUCE Y · 2015 to 2019
$2.8M
Regional Healthcare Ecosystem Analyst for Healthcare Associated InfectionsR01HS023317 · AHRQ · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI LEE, BRUCE Y · 2014 to 2014
$2.4M
AHRQ HHS R01 HS023317NICHD NIH HHS U01 HD086861NICHD NIH HHS U54 HD070725
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesAlthough outbreaks of restaurant-associated foodborne illness occur periodically and make the news, a restaurant may not be aware of the cost of an outbreak. We estimated this cost under varying circumstances.

methodsWe developed a computational simulation model; scenarios varied outbreak size (5 to 250 people affected), pathogen (n = 15), type of dining establishment (fast food, fast casual, casual dining, and fine dining), lost revenue (ie, meals lost per illness), cost of lawsuits and legal fees, fines, and insurance premium increases.

resultsWe estimated that the cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak ranged from $3968 to $1.9 million for a fast-food restaurant, $6330 to $2.1 million for a fast-casual restaurant, $8030 to $2.2 million for a casual-dining restaurant, and $8273 to $2.6 million for a fine-dining restaurant, varying from a 5-person outbreak, with no lost revenue, lawsuits, legal fees, or fines, to a 250-person outbreak, with high lost revenue (100 meals lost per illness), and a high amount of lawsuits and legal fees ($1 656 569) and fines ($100 000). This cost amounts to 10% to 5790% of a restaurant's annual marketing costs and 0.3% to 101% of annual profits and revenue. The biggest cost drivers were lawsuits and legal fees, outbreak size, and lost revenue. Pathogen type affected the cost by a maximum of $337 000, the difference between a Bacillus cereus outbreak (least costly) and a listeria outbreak (most costly).

conclusionsThe cost of a single foodborne illness outbreak to a restaurant can be substantial and outweigh the typical costs of prevention and control measures. Our study can help decision makers determine investment and motivate research for infection-control measures in restaurant settings.

Indexed as

Costs and Cost AnalysisComputer SimulationDisease OutbreaksFoodborne DiseasesHumansRestaurantscosteconomic burdenfoodborneoutbreaksrestaurant

Identifiers

PMID29656701
PMCPMC5958383
OpenAlexW2797615103

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.