Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29654006›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2018

Does bone mineral density improve the predictive accuracy of fracture risk assessment? A prospective cohort study in Northern Denmark.

Paula Dhiman, Stig Andersen, Peter Vestergaard, Tahir Masud, Nadeem Qureshi

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in BMJ open, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 11 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
11citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

11 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Bone mineral content among Inuit - a systematic review of data.International journal of circumpolar health · 2025
    Pooled it
  2. Article
  3. Development and validation of common data model-based fracture prediction model using machine learning algorithm.Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA · 2023
    Article
  4. Screening for primary prevention of fragility fractures: How much time does it take?Canadian family physician Medecin de famille canadien · 2023
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

5 authors.

Paula DhimanDivision of Primary Care, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Stig AndersenGeriatric Medicine, Department of Clinical Medicine, Aalborg Universitetshospital, Aalborg, Denmark.
Peter VestergaardDepartment of Clinical Medicine and Endocrinology, Aalborg Universitetshospital, Aalborg, Denmark.
Tahir MasudGeriatric Medicine, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.
Nadeem QureshiDivision of Primary Care, School of Medicine, University of Nottingham, Nottingham, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveTo evaluate the added predictive accuracy of bone mineral density (BMD) to fracture risk assessment.

designProspective cohort study using data between 01 January 2010 and 31 December 2012.

settingNorth Denmark Osteoporosis Clinic of referred patients presenting with at least one fracture risk factor to the referring doctor.

participantsPatients aged 40-90 years; had BMD T-score recorded at the hip and not taking osteoporotic preventing drugs for more than 1 year prior to baseline.

main outcome measuresIncident diagnoses of osteoporotic fractures (hip, spine, forearm, humerus and pelvis) were identified using the National Patient Registry of Denmark during 01 January 2012-01 January 2014. Cox regression was used to develop a fracture model based on predictors in the Fracture Risk Assessment Tool (FRAX®), with and without, binary and continuous BMD. Change in Harrell's C-Index and Reclassification tables were used to describe the added statistical value of BMD.

resultsAdjusting for predictors included in FRAX®, patients with osteoporosis (T-score ≤-2.5) had 75% higher hazard of a fracture compared with patients with higher BMD (HR: 1.75 (95% CI 1.28 to 2.38)). Forty per cent lower hazard was found per unit increase in continuous BMD T-score (HR: 0.60 (95% CI 0.52 to 0.69)).Accuracy improved marginally, and Harrell's C-Index increased by 1.2% when adding continuous BMD (0.76 to 0.77). Reclassification tables showed continuous BMD shifted 529 patients into different risk categories; 292 of these were reclassified correctly (57%; 95% CI 55% to 64%). Adding binary BMD however no improvement: Harrell's C-Index decreased by 0.6%.

conclusionsContinuous BMD marginally improves fracture risk assessment. Importantly, this was only found when using continuous BMD measurement for osteoporosis. It is suggested that future focus should be on evaluation of this risk factor using routinely collected data and on the development of more clinically relevant methodology to assess the added value of a new risk factor.

Indexed as

Bone DensityAdultAgedAged, 80 and overDenmarkFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedOsteoporotic FracturesPredictive Value of TestsProspective StudiesRisk AssessmentRisk Factorsbone mineral densityfractureosteoporosispredictive accuracyrisk prediction

Identifiers

PMID29654006
PMCPMC5898344

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.