Observational studyBMC infectious diseases2018
Population sensitivity of acute flaccid paralysis and environmental surveillance for serotype 1 poliovirus in Pakistan: an observational study.
Observational study in BMC infectious diseases, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
20 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Review of Poliovirus Transmission and Economic Modeling to Support Global Polio Eradication: 2020-2024.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Pooled it
- Sampling Schemes in Poliovirus Wastewater Surveillance Studies from European Countries and Their Comparison to Other Studies: A Literature Review.Microorganisms · 2026Review
- Sub-national modelling of surveillance sensitivity to inform declaration of disease elimination: A retrospective validation against the elimination of wild poliovirus in Nigeria.PLoS computational biology · 2026Article
- Assessing the sensitivity and predictive value of wastewater in detection of Hepatitis A cases in San Diego County.PloS one · 2026Article
- A review on health system-based surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis: technological advancements, challenges, and outlooks.Journal of health, population, and nutrition · 2025Review
- Impediments to Progress Toward Polio Eradication During 2014-2024: Effectively Addressing the Current Challenges.Vaccines · 2025Review
- Genetic characterization of type 3 vaccine-derived poliovirus from a patient with hand, foot, and mouth disease in China.Virology journal · 2025Article
- Article
- Comparative assessment of Nanotrap and polyethylene glycol-based virus concentration in wastewater samples.FEMS microbes · 2024Article
- A comparative study on environmental surveillance of enterovirus: Using a two-phase separation method and a filtration method with a mixed cellulose ester (MCE) membrane.Biosafety and health · 2023Article
- The re-emergence of wild poliovirus type 1 in Africa and the role of environmental surveillance in interrupting poliovirus transmission.IJID regions · 2022Review
- The role of time-varying viral shedding in modelling environmental surveillance for public health: revisiting the 2013 poliovirus outbreak in Israel.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2022Article
- Modeling Poliovirus Surveillance and Immunization Campaign Quality Monitoring Costs for Pakistan and Afghanistan for 2019-2023.Open forum infectious diseases · 2021Article
- Article
- Wastewater surveillance for SARS-CoV-2: Lessons learnt from recent studies to define future applications.The Science of the total environment · 2021Review
- The role of genetic sequencing and analysis in the polio eradication programme.Virus evolution · 2020Review
- Review of poliovirus modeling performed from 2000 to 2019 to support global polio eradication.Expert review of vaccines · 2020Review
- Investigation Report of cVDPV2 Outbreak in Bokh Woreda of Dollo Zone, Somali Regional State, Ethiopia.Case reports in infectious diseases · 2020Article
- Environmental Surveillance System Characteristics and Impacts on Confidence About No Undetected Serotype 1 Wild Poliovirus Circulation.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2019Article
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundTo support poliomyelitis eradication in Pakistan, environmental surveillance (ES) of wastewater has been expanded alongside surveillance for acute flaccid paralysis (AFP). ES is a relatively new method of surveillance, and the population sensitivity of detecting poliovirus within endemic settings requires estimation.
methodsData for wild serotype 1 poliovirus from AFP and ES from January 2011 to September 2015 from 14 districts in Pakistan were analysed using a multi-state model framework. This framework was used to estimate the sensitivity of poliovirus detection from each surveillance source and parameters such as the duration of infection within a community.
resultsThe location and timing of poliomyelitis cases showed spatial and temporal variability. The sensitivity of AFP surveillance to detect serotype 1 poliovirus infection in a district and its neighbours per month was on average 30.0% (95% CI 24.8-35.8) and increased with the incidence of poliomyelitis cases. The average population sensitivity of a single environmental sample was 59.4% (95% CI 55.4-63.0), with significant variation in site-specific estimates (median varied from 33.3-79.2%). The combined population sensitivity of environmental and AFP surveillance in a given month was on average 98.1% (95% CI 97.2-98.7), assuming four samples per month for each site.
conclusionsES can be a highly sensitive supplement to AFP surveillance in areas with converging sewage systems. As ES for poliovirus is expanded, it will be important to identify factors associated with variation in site sensitivity, leading to improved site selection and surveillance system performance.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.