ArticlePerioperative medicine (London, England)2018
The evaluation of risk prediction models in predicting outcomes after bariatric surgery: a prospective observational cohort pilot study.
Article in Perioperative medicine (London, England), 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Integrating Machine Learning and Dynamic Digital Follow-up for Enhanced Prediction of Postoperative Complications in Bariatric Surgery.Obesity surgery · 2025Article
- Days at home after surgery as a perioperative outcome: scoping review and recommendations for use in health services research.The British journal of surgery · 2024Article
- Article
- Am I on Track? Evaluating Patient-Specific Weight Loss After Bariatric Surgery Using an Outcomes Calculator.Obesity surgery · 2021Article
- Mid-term bariatric surgery outcomes for obese patients: does weight matter?Annals of the Royal College of Surgeons of England · 2020Observational
- Development of an Interactive Outcome Estimation Tool for Laparoscopic Roux-en-Y Gastric Bypass in Mexico Based on a Cohort of 1002 Patients.Obesity surgery · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundAs the prevalence of obesity is increasing, the number of patients requiring surgical intervention for obesity-related illness is also rising. The aim of this pilot study was to explore predictors of short-term morbidity and longer-term poor weight loss after bariatric surgery.
methodsThis was a single-centre prospective observational cohort pilot study in patients undergoing bariatric surgery. We assessed the accuracy (discrimination and calibration) of two previously validated risk prediction models (the Physiological and Operative Severity Score for the enumeration of Morbidity and Mortality, POSSUM score, and the Obesity Surgical Mortality Risk Score, OS-MS) for postoperative outcome (postoperative morbidity defined using the Post Operative Morbidity Survey). We then tested the relationship between postoperative morbidity and longer-term weight loss outcome adjusting for known patient risk factors.
resultsComplete data were collected on 197 patients who underwent surgery for obesity or obesity-related illnesses between March 2010 and September 2013. Results showed POSSUM and OS-MRS were less accurate at predicting Post Operative Morbidity Survey (POMS)-defined morbidity on day 3 than defining prolonged length of stay due to poor mobility and/or POMS-defined morbidity. Having fewer than 28 days alive and out of hospital within 30 days of surgery was predictive of poor weight loss at 1 year, independent of POSSUM-defined risk (odds ratio 2.6; 95% confidence interval 1.28-5.24).
conclusionsPOSSUM may be used to predict patients who will have prolonged postoperative LOS after bariatric surgery due to morbidity or poor mobility. However, independent of POSSUM score, having less than 28 days alive and out of hospital predicted poor weight loss outcome at 1 year. This adds to the literature that postoperative complications are independently associated with poor longer-term surgical outcomes.
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