Simulating long-term human weight-loss dynamics in response to calorie restriction.

Background: Mathematical models have been developed to predict body weight (BW) and composition changes in response to lifestyle interventions, but these models have not been adequately validated over the long term. Objective: We compared mathematical models of human BW dynamics underlying 2 popular web-based weight-loss prediction tools, the National Institutes of Health Body Weight Planner (NIH BWP) and the Pennington Biomedical Research Center Weight Loss Predictor (PBRC WLP), with data from the 2-year Comprehensive Assessment of Long-term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy (CALERIE) study. Design: Mathematical models were initialized using baseline CALERIE data, and changes in body weight (ΔBW), fat mass (ΔFM), and energy expenditure (ΔEE) were simulated in response to time-varying changes in energy intake (ΔEI) objectively measured using the intake-balance method. No model parameters were adjusted from their previously published values. Results: The PBRC WLP model simulated an exaggerated early decrease in EE in response to calorie restriction, resulting in substantial underestimation of the observed mean (95% CI) BW losses by 3.8 (3.5, 4.2) kg. The NIH WLP simulations were much closer to the data, with an overall mean ΔBW bias of -0.47 (-0.92, -0.015) kg. Linearized model analysis revealed that the main reason for the PBRC WLP model bias was a parameter value defining how spontaneous physical activity expenditure decreased with caloric restriction. Both models exhibited substantial variability in their ability to simulate individual results in response to calorie restriction. Monte Carlo simulations demonstrated that ΔEI measurement uncertainties were a major contributor to the individual variability in NIH BWP model simulations. Conclusions: The NIH BWP outperformed the PBRC WLP and accurately simulated average weight-loss and energy balance dynamics in response to long-term calorie restriction. However, the substantial variability in the NIH BWP model predictions at the individual level suggests cautious interpretation of individual-level simulations. This trial was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT00427193.