Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29635277›Full record

ArticleAmerican journal of epidemiology2018

Impact of Public Health Responses During a Measles Outbreak in an Amish Community in Ohio: Modeling the Dynamics of Transmission.

Paul A Gastañaduy, Sebastian Funk, Prabasaj Paul, Lilith Tatham, Nicholas Fisher, Jeremy Budd, Brian Fowler, Sietske de Fijter, Mary DiOrio, Gregory S Wallace and 1 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in American journal of epidemiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 15 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
15citing papers in PubMed
2.9field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

15 citing papers in PubMed, 25 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Risk of Measles Outbreak in Texas School Districts: A Modeling Study.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2026
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  5. Maintenance of Measles Elimination Status in the United States for 20 Years Despite Increasing Challenges.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2022
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Paul A GastañaduyDivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Sebastian FunkCentre for the Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom.
Prabasaj PaulDivision of Nutrition, Physical Activity, and Obesity, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Lilith TathamOhio Department of Health, Columbus, Ohio.
Nicholas FisherOhio Department of Health, Columbus, Ohio.
Jeremy BuddOhio Department of Health, Columbus, Ohio.
Brian FowlerOhio Department of Health, Columbus, Ohio.
Sietske de FijterOhio Department of Health, Columbus, Ohio.
Mary DiOrioOhio Department of Health, Columbus, Ohio.
Gregory S WallaceDivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Bryan GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Woodrow Wilson School of Public and International Affairs, Princeton University, Princeton, New Jersey.
Ohio Department of Health · USCenters for Disease Control and Prevention · USLondon School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine · GBPrinceton University · US

Funding

Medical Research Council MR/K021680/1
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

We quantified measles transmissibility during a measles outbreak in Ohio in 2014 to evaluate the impact of public health responses. Case incidence and the serial interval (time between symptom onset in primary cases and secondary cases) were used to assess trends in the effective reproduction number R (the average number of secondary cases generated per case). A mathematical model was parameterized using early R values to determine the size and duration of the outbreak that would have occurred if containment measures had not been initiated, as well as the impact of vaccination. As containment started, we found a 4-fold decline in R (from approximately 4 to 1) over the course of 2 weeks and maintenance of R < 1 as control measures continued. Under a conservative scenario, the model estimated 8,472 cases (90% confidence interval (CI): 8,447, 8,489) over 195 days (90% CI: 179, 223) without control efforts and 715 cases (90% CI: 103, 1,338) over 128 days (90% CI: 117, 139) when vaccination was included; 7,757 fewer cases (90% CI: 7,130, 8,365) and 67 fewer outbreak days (90% CI: 48, 98) were attributed to vaccination. Vaccination may not account entirely for transmission reductions, suggesting that changes in community behavior (social distancing) and other control efforts (isolation, quarantining) are important. Our findings highlight the benefits of measles outbreak response and of understanding behavior change dynamics.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalPublic Health PracticeDisease OutbreaksHumansMeaslesOhio

Identifiers

PMID29635277
PMCPMC6118071
OpenAlexW2795702610

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.