Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29626758›Full record

SynthesisEuropean psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists2018

Use of risk assessment instruments to predict violence in forensic psychiatric hospitals: a systematic review and meta-analysis.

Taanvi Ramesh, Artemis Igoumenou, Maria Vazquez Montes, Seena Fazel

Open access · hybridAbstract readMeta-AnalysisSystematic Review
In one paragraph

Synthesis in European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 42 papers, 9 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
42citing papers in PubMed, 9 pooled it
12.6field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

42 citing papers in PubMed, 9 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 124 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
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  4. Systematic review of risk factors for violence in psychosis: 10-year update.The British journal of psychiatry : the journal of mental science · 2025
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  5. Risk assessment for aggressive behaviour in schizophrenia.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024
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  10. Improving risk assessment in forensic mental health: Temporal validation and clinical refinement of the FoVOx risk tool.European psychiatry : the journal of the Association of European Psychiatrists · 2026
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors at 2 institutions in 1 country.

Taanvi RameshDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Artemis IgoumenouConsultant Forensic Psychiatrist, Barnet Enfield and Haringey Mental Health NHS Trust, UK.
Maria Vazquez MontesNuffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK.
Seena FazelDepartment of Psychiatry, University of Oxford, Oxford, UK. Electronic address: seena.fazel@psych.ox.ac.uk.
University of Oxford · GBBarnet Enfield and Haringey Mental Health Trust · GB

Funding

Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 202836/Z/16/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUND AND

aimsViolent behaviour by forensic psychiatric inpatients is common. We aimed to systematically review the performance of structured risk assessment tools for violence in these settings.

methodsThe nine most commonly used violence risk assessment instruments used in psychiatric hospitals were examined. A systematic search of five databases (CINAHL, Embase, Global Health, PsycINFO and PubMed) was conducted to identify studies examining the predictive accuracy of these tools in forensic psychiatric inpatient settings. Risk assessment instruments were separated into those designed for imminent (within 24 hours) violence prediction and those designed for longer-term prediction. A range of accuracy measures and descriptive variables were extracted. A quality assessment was performed for each eligible study using the QUADAS-2. Summary performance measures (sensitivity, specificity, positive and negative predictive values, diagnostic odds ratio, and area under the curve value) and HSROC curves were produced. In addition, meta-regression analyses investigated study and sample effects on tool performance.

resultsFifty-two eligible publications were identified, of which 43 provided information on tool accuracy in the form of AUC statistics. These provided data on 78 individual samples, with information on 6,840 patients. Of these, 35 samples (3,306 patients from 19 publications) provided data on all performance measures. The median AUC value for the wider group of 78 samples was higher for imminent tools (AUC 0.83; IQR: 0.71-0.85) compared with longer-term tools (AUC 0.68; IQR: 0.62-0.75). Other performance measures indicated variable accuracy for imminent and longer-term tools. Meta-regression indicated that no study or sample-related characteristics were associated with between-study differences in AUCs.

interpretationThe performance of current tools in predicting risk of violence beyond the first few days is variable, and the selection of which tool to use in clinical practice should consider accuracy estimates. For more imminent violence, however, there is evidence in support of brief scalable assessment tools.

Indexed as

Forensic PsychiatryHospitals, PsychiatricAdultAggressionFemaleHumansMalePrisonersRisk AssessmentSensitivity and SpecificityViolence

Identifiers

PMID29626758
PMCPMC6020743
OpenAlexW2790248149

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.