ArticleInternational journal of environmental research and public health2018
A Predictive Model Has Identified Tick-Borne Encephalitis High-Risk Areas in Regions Where No Cases Were Reported Previously, Poland, 1999-2012.
Article in International journal of environmental research and public health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Reassessing Regional Tick-Borne Encephalitis Endemicity in Poland Through Seroprevalence Analysis in Blood Donors, 2021-2022.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2026Article
- Projecting tick-borne encephalitis risk in Sweden under climate change scenarios: a high-resolution spatio-temporal modeling approach.Environmental health : a global access science source · 2026Article
- The burden of viral hepatitis infection and mortality: Findings from a population-based study in Poland over 2009-2023.Clinical and experimental hepatology · 2025Article
- Different environmental factors predict the occurrence of tick-borne encephalitis virus (TBEV) and reveal new potential risk areas across Europe via geospatial models.International journal of health geographics · 2025Article
- The impact of serological testing implementation on tick-borne encephalitis detection in Poland.PloS one · 2025Article
- Tick-Borne Encephalitis Presenting as Brachial Plexus Injury: A Case Report.Case reports in infectious diseases · 2025Article
- Tick-borne encephalitis epidemiology and surveillance in Poland, and comparison with selected European countries before and during the COVID-19 pandemic, 2008 to 2020.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2023Article
- Decoding the Geography of Natural TBEV Microfoci in Germany: A Geostatistical Approach Based on Land-Use Patterns and Climatological Conditions.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2022Article
- Geo-Spatial Characteristics of 567 Places of Tick-Borne Encephalitis Infection in Southern Germany, 2018-2020.Microorganisms · 2022Article
- Spatial patterns of pathogen prevalence in questing Ixodes ricinus nymphs in southern Scandinavia, 2016.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Etiology, Clinical Presentation and Incidence of Infectious Meningitis and Encephalitis in Polish Children.Journal of clinical medicine · 2020Article
- Model of Risk of Exposure to Lyme Borreliosis and Tick-Borne Encephalitis Virus-Infected Ticks in the Border Area of the Czech Republic (South Bohemia) and Germany (Lower Bavaria and Upper Palatinate).International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
- Modelling tick bite risk by combining random forests and count data regression models.PloS one · 2019Article
- Large-scale health disparities associated with Lyme disease and human monocytic ehrlichiosis in the United States, 2007-2013.PloS one · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
Abstract
During 1999–2012, 77% of the cases of tick-borne encephalitis (TBE) were recorded in two out of 16 Polish provinces. However, historical data, mostly from national serosurveys, suggest that the disease could be undetected in many areas. The aim of this study was to identify which routinely-measured meteorological, environmental, and socio-economic factors are associated to TBE human risk across Poland, with a particular focus on areas reporting few cases, but where serosurveys suggest higher incidence. We fitted a zero-inflated Poisson model using data on TBE incidence recorded in 108 NUTS-5 administrative units in high-risk areas over the period 1999–2012. Subsequently we applied the best fitting model to all Polish municipalities. Keeping the remaining variables constant, the predicted rate increased with the increase of air temperature over the previous 10–20 days, precipitation over the previous 20–30 days, in forestation, forest edge density, forest road density, and unemployment. The predicted rate decreased with increasing distance from forests. The map of predicted rates was consistent with the established risk areas. It predicted, however, high rates in provinces considered TBE-free. We recommend raising awareness among physicians working in the predicted high-risk areas and considering routine use of household animal surveys for risk mapping.
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