Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29610384›Full record

ArticlePhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences2018

Solar geoengineering as part of an overall strategy for meeting the 1.5°C Paris target.

Douglas G MacMartin, Katharine L Ricke, David W Keith

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
16citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

16 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Robust Solar Radiation Modification Strategy for Achieving Temperature Targets.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2026
    Article
  2. Article
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Potential for perceived failure of stratospheric aerosol injection deployment.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
    Article
  6. Scenarios for modeling solar radiation modification.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2022
    Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Review
  10. Solar geoengineering may lead to excessive cooling and high strategic uncertainty.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2020
    Article
  11. Article
  12. Solar geoengineering to reduce climate change: a review of governance proposals.Proceedings. Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2019
    Review
  13. Mission-driven research for stratospheric aerosol geoengineering.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2019
    Article
  14. Review
  15. The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2018
    Article
  16. Towards legitimacy of the solar geoengineering research enterprise.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2018
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Douglas G MacMartinMechanical and Aerospace Engineering, Cornell University, Ithaca, NY 14850, USA dgm224@cornell.edu.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1987-9417
Katharine L RickeScripps Institution of Oceanography and School of Global Policy and Strategy, University of California, San Diego, CA, USA.
David W KeithJohn A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and John F. Kennedy School of Government, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Solar geoengineering refers to deliberately reducing net radiative forcing by reflecting some sunlight back to space, in order to reduce anthropogenic climate changes; a possible such approach would be adding aerosols to the stratosphere. If future mitigation proves insufficient to limit the rise in global mean temperature to less than 1.5°C above preindustrial, it is plausible that some additional and limited deployment of solar geoengineering could reduce climate damages. That is, these approaches could eventually be considered as part of an overall strategy to manage the risks of climate change, combining emissions reduction, net-negative emissions technologies and solar geoengineering to meet climate goals. We first provide a physical-science review of current research, research trends and some of the key gaps in knowledge that would need to be addressed to support informed decisions. Next, since few climate model simulations have considered these limited-deployment scenarios, we synthesize prior results to assess the projected response if solar geoengineering were used to limit global mean temperature to 1.5°C above preindustrial in an overshoot scenario that would otherwise peak near 3°C. While there are some important differences, the resulting climate is closer in many respects to a climate where the 1.5°C target is achieved through mitigation alone than either is to the 3°C climate with no geoengineering. This holds for both regional temperature and precipitation changes; indeed, there are no regions where a majority of models project that this moderate level of geoengineering would produce a statistically significant shift in precipitation further away from preindustrial levels.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.

Indexed as

1.5climate changegeoengineering

Identifiers

PMID29610384
PMCPMC5897825

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.