ArticlePhilosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences2018
Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5°C and 2.0°C: implications for coastal areas.
Article in Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.
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20 citing papers in PubMed.
- Long-term adaptation pathways for Venice and its lagoon under sea-level rise.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Warming of +1.5 °C is too high for polar ice sheets.Communications earth & environment · 2025Review
- A synthetic approach to the Holiday Climate Index for the Mediterranean Coast of Türkiye.International journal of biometeorology · 2024Article
- Disappearing cities on US coasts.Nature · 2024Article
- Exploring spatial feedbacks between adaptation policies and internal migration patterns due to sea-level rise.Nature communications · 2023Article
- Data-driven predictions of the time remaining until critical global warming thresholds are reached.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- The macroeconomic effects of adapting to high-end sea-level rise via protection and migration.Nature communications · 2022Article
- Digitising historical sea level records in the Thames Estuary, UK.Scientific data · 2022Article
- Coping and Adaptation in Response to Environmental and Climatic Stressors in Caribbean Coastal Communities.Environmental management · 2021Article
- Uncertainty and Bias in Global to Regional Scale Assessments of Current and Future Coastal Flood Risk.Earth's future · 2021Article
- The changing Arctic Ocean: consequences for biological communities, biogeochemical processes and ecosystem functioning.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2020Article
- Coastal Stakeholders' Perceptions of Sea Level Rise Adaptation Planning in the Northern Gulf of Mexico.Environmental management · 2020Article
- Specialized adaptations allow vent-endemic crabs (Xenograpsus testudinatus) to thrive under extreme environmental hypercapnia.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2020Article
- Benthic-based contributions to climate change mitigation and adaptation.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2020Article
- Approximate calculations of the net economic impact of global warming mitigation targets under heightened damage estimates.PloS one · 2020Article
- Imbricated Coastal Boulder Deposits are Formed by Storm Waves, and Can Preserve a Long-Term Storminess Record.Scientific reports · 2019Article
- Compensatory responses can alter the form of the biodiversity-function relation curve.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2019Article
- Article
- The myriad challenges of the Paris Agreement.Philosophical transactions. Series A, Mathematical, physical, and engineering sciences · 2018Article
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12 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5°C and 2.0°C stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.This article is part of the theme issue 'The Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels'.
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