Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29609598›Full record

ArticleMalaria journal2018

Modelling the persistence of mosquito vectors of malaria in Burkina Faso.

Ace R North, H Charles J Godfray

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Malaria journal, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 17 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
17citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

17 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Review
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  4. Lords of the flies: dipteran migrants are diverse, abundant and ecologically important.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2025
    Review
  5. Variation in spatial population structure in thebioRxiv : the preprint server for biology · 2024
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

2 authors.

Ace R NorthDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK. ace.north@zoo.ox.ac.uk.
H Charles J GodfrayDepartment of Zoology, University of Oxford, Woodstock Road, Oxford, OX2 6GG, UK.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPopulations of the Anopheles gambiae complex are found during the rainy season throughout West Africa, even in arid areas with long dry seasons during which mosquitoes appear to be absent. Several hypotheses have been proposed to explain this apparent paradox, including aestivation, dispersal between neighbouring settlements, and long distance migration using high-altitude wind currents.

methodsAn individual-based, spatially explicit model of mosquito populations was developed for a region of West Africa centred on, and including all of, Burkina Faso. Populations associated with human settlements were linked by dispersal and the model incorporated geospatial data on the distribution of settlements, water bodies and rainfall.

resultsLocal dispersal (at rates consistent with experimental data) was necessary to explain observed patterns of rainy season populations across all of the simulation area, but by itself failed to account for the presence of populations in the arid North (the Sahel). The presence of rare dry-season larval sites could explain these northern populations, but seems inconsistent with field surveys. Aestivation by female mosquitoes explained rainy-season populations in all but the very sparsest and driest areas of human habitation, while long-distance migration based on annual wind patterns could account for all observed populations.

conclusionsModelling studies such as this can help assess the potential validity of different hypotheses and suggest priority areas for experimental study. In particular, the results highlight a shortage of empirical research on mosquito dispersal between neighbouring settlements, which may be critically important to the continued presence of many mosquito populations in West Africa. Further research that establishes the extent to which mosquitoes aestivate, and migrate using high altitude winds, is also much needed to understand Sahelian mosquito populations.

Indexed as

Models, BiologicalAnimal MigrationAnimalsAnophelesBurkina FasoEstivationFemaleMalariaMaleMosquito VectorsAnopheles coluzziiAnopheles gambiaeModelMosquito aestivationMosquito migration

Identifiers

PMID29609598
PMCPMC5879775

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.