ArticleScientific reports2018
An explanation for the low proportion of tuberculosis that results from transmission between household and known social contacts.
Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 49 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
49 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Agent-based modelling of Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission: a systematic review.BMC infectious diseases · 2024Pooled it
- Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Sex Differences in Social Contact Patterns and Implications for Tuberculosis Transmission and Control.Emerging infectious diseases · 2020Pooled it
- Trial
- Mycobacterium tuberculosis transmission from tuberculosis patients with and without recognized symptoms: a case-contact study in eastern China.Nature communications · 2026Article
- Characterizing social behavior relevant for tuberculosis transmission in four low- and middle-income countries.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
- Article
- Characterizing social behavior relevant for tuberculosis transmission in four low- and middle-income countries.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Alcohol Consumption of Male Tuberculosis Index Cases and Tuberculosis Transmission Among Social Contacts in Puducherry, India: A Cross-Sectional Analytical Study.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Estimating childhood tuberculosis incidence and under-reporting in Gedeo Zone, Ethiopia: a Bayesian hidden Markov model.IJID regions · 2025Article
- [Molecular Epidemiological Analysis of Tuberculosis Transmission in Households in Republic of Korea, 2016-2024].Jugan geon-gang gwa jilbyeong · 2025Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modelling of tuberculosis in Vietnam: Insights from a local-area analysis.Epidemiology and infection · 2025Article
- Estimating the impact of school closures on the COVID-19 dynamics in 74 countries: A modelling analysis.PLoS medicine · 2025Article
- Optimising TB investments in Belarus, Moldova, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan: An allocative efficiency analysis.PLOS global public health · 2025Article
- Mycobacterium tuberculosis cough aerosol culture status associates with host characteristics and inflammatory profiles.Nature communications · 2024Article
- Tuberculosis Infectiousness is Associated with Distinct Clinical and Inflammatory Profiles.Research square · 2024Article
- Optimizing the cascade of prevention to protect people from tuberculosis: A potential game changer for reducing global tuberculosis incidence.PLOS global public health · 2024Review
- Understanding tuberculosis transmission and progression: A prospective cohort study of index cases and close contacts in Moldova.PloS one · 2024Article
- Designing community-based strategies to reach non-household contacts of people with tuberculosis in Lusaka, Zambia: a rapid qualitative study among key stakeholders.Frontiers in public health · 2024Article
- Measuring indirect transmission-reducing effects in tuberculosis vaccine efficacy trials: why and how?The Lancet. Microbe · 2023Review
- Disease Transmission by Patients With Subclinical Tuberculosis.Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America · 2023Article
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2 authors.
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Abstract
We currently have little idea where Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) transmission occurs in high incidence settings. Molecular studies suggest that only around 8-19% of transmission to adults occurs within-household, or between known social-contacts. This contrasts with findings from social-contact studies, which show that substantial proportions of contact time occur in households, workplaces and schools. A mathematical model of social-contact behaviour and Mtb transmission was developed, incorporating variation in susceptibility and infectiousness. Three types of contact were simulated: household, repeated (individuals outside household contacted repeatedly with daily-monthly frequency) and non-repeated. The model was parameterised using data from Cape Town, South Africa, on mean and variance in contact numbers and contact durations, by contact type, and fitted to an estimate of overdispersion in numbers of secondary cases ('superspreading') in Cape Town. Household, repeated, and non-repeated contacts contributed 36%, 13%, and 51% of contact time, and 13%, 8%, and 79% of disease, respectively. Results suggest contact saturation, exacerbated by long disease durations and superspreading, cause the high proportion of transmission between non-repeated contacts. Household and social-contact tracing is therefore unlikely to reach most tuberculosis cases. A better understanding of transmission locations, and methods to identify superspreaders, are urgently required to improve tuberculosis prevention strategies.
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