ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2018
HIV incidence among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modelling analysis.
Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 48 citations in OpenAlex.
- The status of hepatitis C virus infection among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2020Pooled it
- The epidemiology of hepatitis C virus in Iran: Systematic review and meta-analyses.Scientific reports · 2018Pooled it
- Hepatitis C virus genotypes in the Middle East and North Africa: Distribution, diversity, and patterns.Journal of medical virology · 2018Pooled it
- Regional perspectives on substance use, substance use-related problems and policy: The case of Jordan.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2026Review
- Sex disparities and partners' positive HIV status in HIV recent infection among people who inject drugs in Ukraine.AIDS (London, England) · 2026Article
- Hepatitis C virus transmission among people who inject drugs in the Middle East and North Africa: mathematical modeling analyses of incidence and intervention impact.EClinicalMedicine · 2025Article
- From criminalization to care: a comparative rights-based policy review of HIV responses in South Asia.Frontiers in public health · 2025Review
- Analysis and mapping of harm reduction research in the context of injectable drug use: identifying research hotspots, gaps and future directions.Harm reduction journal · 2024Article
- New HIV Infections Among Key Populations and Their Partners in 2010 and 2022, by World Region: A Multisources Estimation.Journal of acquired immune deficiency syndromes (1999) · 2024Article
- Injection cessation and relapse to injection and the associated factors among people who inject drugs in Iran: The Rostam study.Substance abuse treatment, prevention, and policy · 2023Article
- Trends and projection of incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years of HIV in the Middle East and North Africa (1990-2030).Scientific reports · 2023Article
- An Evolving HIV Epidemic in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region: A Scoping Review.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2023Article
- Quality of Life of People Living with HIV on Antiretroviral Therapy: A Cross-Sectional Study in Monastir, Tunisia.HIV/AIDS (Auckland, N.Z.) · 2023Article
- HIV Prevalence and Related Behaviors Among People Who Inject Drugs in Iran from 2010 to 2020.AIDS and behavior · 2022Article
- The role of depression in secondary HIV transmission among people who inject drugs in Vietnam: A mathematical modeling analysis.PloS one · 2022Article
- Disability-adjusted life years and mortality rate attributed to unsafe sex and drug use for AIDS in the Middle East and North Africa countries.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2020Article
- Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Global Prevalence of HBsAg and HIV and HCV Antibodies among People Who Inject Drugs and Female Sex Workers.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Review
- Understanding the Reasons for Sharing Syringes or Needles to Inject Drugs: Conventional Content Analysis.Addiction & health · 2020Article
- Differences in Gut Microbial Diversity are Driven by Drug Use and Drug Cessation by Either Compulsory Detention or Methadone Maintenance Treatment.Microorganisms · 2020Article
- Evolving HIV epidemics: the urgent need to refocus on populations with risk.Current opinion in HIV and AIDS · 2019Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
introductionEmerging HIV epidemics have been documented among people who inject drugs (PWID) in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). This study estimates the HIV incidence among PWID due to sharing needles/syringes in MENA. It also delineates injecting drug use role as a driver of the epidemic in the population, and estimates impact of interventions.
methodsA mathematical model of HIV transmission among PWID was applied in seven MENA countries with sufficient and recent epidemiological data and HIV prevalence ≥1% among PWID. Estimations of incident and/or prevalent infections among PWID, ex-PWID and sexual partners of infected current and ex-PWID were conducted.
resultsThe estimated HIV incidence rate for 2017 among PWID ranged between 0.7% per person-year (ppy) in Tunisia and 7.8% ppy in Pakistan, with Libya being an outlier (24.8% ppy). The estimated number of annual new infections was lowest in Tunisia (n = 79) and Morocco (n = 99), and highest in Iran and Pakistan (approximately n = 6700 each). In addition, 20 to 2208 and 5 to 837 new annual infections were estimated across the different countries among sexual partners of PWID and ex-PWID respectively. Since epidemic emergence, the number of total ever acquired incident infections across countries was 706 to 90,015 among PWID, 99 to 18,244 among sexual partners of PWID, and 16 to 4360 among sexual partners of ex-PWID. The estimated number of prevalent infections across countries was 341 to 23,279 among PWID, 119 to 16,540 among ex-PWID, 67 to 10,752 among sexual partners of PWID, and 12 to 2863 among sexual partners of ex-PWID. Increasing antiretroviral therapy (ART) coverage to the global target of 81% - factoring in ART adherence and current coverage - would avert about half of new infections among PWID and their sexual partners. Combining ART with harm reduction could avert over 90% and 70% of new infections among PWID and their sexual partners respectively.
conclusionsThere is considerable HIV incidence among PWID in MENA. Of all new infections ultimately due to injecting drug use, about 75% are among PWID and the rest among sexual partners. Of all prevalent infections ultimately attributed to injecting drug use as epidemic driver, about half are among PWID, 30% among ex-PWID and 20% among sexual partners of PWID and ex-PWID. These findings call for scale-up of services for PWID, including harm reduction as well as testing and treatment services.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.