ArticleOsteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA2018
Predicting mortality and incident immobility in older Belgian men by characteristics related to sarcopenia and frailty.
Article in Osteoporosis international : a journal established as result of cooperation between the European Foundation for Osteoporosis and the National Osteoporosis Foundation of the USA, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
2 citing papers in PubMed, 6 citations in OpenAlex.
- Skeletal muscle mass and all-cause mortality: Findings from the CRONICAS cohort study.Tropical medicine & international health : TM & IH · 2023Article
- Artificial intelligence, osteoporosis and fragility fractures.Current opinion in rheumatology · 2019Review
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
There is an increasing awareness of sarcopenia in older people. We applied machine learning principles to predict mortality and incident immobility in older Belgian men through sarcopenia and frailty characteristics. Mortality could be predicted with good accuracy. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D and bone mineral density scores were the most important predictors.
introductionMachine learning principles were used to predict 5-year mortality and 3-year incident severe immobility in a population of older men by frailty and sarcopenia characteristics.
methodsUsing prospective data from 1997 on 264 older Belgian men (n = 152 predictors), 29 statistical models were developed and tuned on 75% of data points then validated on the remaining 25%. The model with the highest test area under the curve (AUC) was chosen as the best. From these, ranked predictor importance was extracted.
resultsFive-year mortality could be predicted with good accuracy (test AUC of .85 [.73; .97], sensitivity 78%, specificity 89% at a probability cut-off of 22.3%) using a Bayesian generalized linear model. Three-year incident severe immobility could be predicted with fair accuracy (test AUC .74 [.57; .91], sensitivity 67%, specificity 78% at a probability cut-off of 14.2%) using a multivariate adaptive regression splines model. Serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D levels and hip bone mineral density scores were the most important predictors of mortality, while biochemical androgen markers and Short-Form 36 Physical Domain questions were the most important predictors of immobility. Sarcopenia assessed by lean mass estimates was relevant to mortality prediction but not immobility prediction.
conclusionsUsing advanced statistical models and a machine learning approach 5-year mortality can be predicted with good accuracy using a Bayesian generalized linear model and 3-year incident severe immobility with fair accuracy using a multivariate adaptive regression splines model.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.