ArticlePloS one2018
An advection-deposition-survival model to assess the risk of introduction of vector-borne diseases through the wind: Application to bluetongue outbreaks in Spain.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 6 papers.
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Who cites it
6 citing papers in PubMed.
- Colonisation history of a vector species of veterinary interest: phylogeography of Culicoides imicola (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) in the Indian Ocean revealing low genetic structure.Parasite (Paris, France) · 2026Article
- Quantitative risk assessment for the introduction of bluetongue virus into mainland Europe by long-distance wind dispersal of Culicoides spp.: A case study from Sardinia.Risk analysis : an official publication of the Society for Risk Analysis · 2025Article
- The Ecology and Evolution of Japanese Encephalitis Virus.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Review
- Identifying Spanish Areas at More Risk of Monthly BTV Transmission with a Basic Reproduction Number Approach.Viruses · 2020Article
- Article
- The possible route of introduction of bluetongue virus serotype 3 into Sicily by windborne transportation of infected Culicoides spp.Transboundary and emerging diseases · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
6 authors.
Funding
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Abstract
This work develops a methodology for estimating risk of wind-borne introduction of flying insects into a country, identifying areas and periods of high risk of vector-borne diseases incursion. This risk can be characterized by the role of suitable temperatures and wind currents in small insects' survival and movements, respectively. The model predicts the number density of introduced insects over space and time based on three processes: the advection due to wind currents, the deposition on the ground and the survival due to climatic conditions. Spanish livestock has suffered many bluetongue outbreaks since 2004 and numerous experts point to Culicoides transported by wind from affected areas in North Africa as a possible cause. This work implements numerical experiments simulating the introduction of Culicoides in 2004. The model identified southern and eastern Spain, particularly between June and November, as being at greatest risk of wind-borne Culicoides introduction, which matches field data on bluetongue outbreaks in Spain this year. This validation suggests that this model may be useful for predicting introduction of airborne pathogens of significance to animal productivity.
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