ArticleScientific reports2018
Consensus and conflict among ecological forecasts of Zika virus outbreaks in the United States.
Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 23 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
23 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- A systematic review and evaluation of Zika virus forecasting and prediction research during a public health emergency of international concern.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2019Pooled it
- Retrospective Analysis and Cross-Validated Forecasting of West Nile Virus Transmission in Italy: Insights from Climate and Surveillance Data.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2025Article
- Exploring Zika's dynamics: A scoping review journey from epidemic to equations through mathematical modelling.Infectious Disease Modelling · 2025Review
- Advanced Artificial Intelligence Technologies Transforming Contemporary Pharmaceutical Research.Bioengineering (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025Review
- Modelling the transmission of dengue, zika and chikungunya: a scoping review protocol.BMJ open · 2023Article
- Multiple models for outbreak decision support in the face of uncertainty.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2023Article
- Simulation of the COVID-19 patient flow and investigation of the future patient arrival using a time-series prediction model: a real-case study.Medical & biological engineering & computing · 2022Article
- Near-term forecasting of companion animal tick paralysis incidence: An iterative ensemble model.PLoS computational biology · 2022Article
- Estimating COVID-19Machine learning with applications · 2021Article
- Random-Forest-Bagging Broad Learning System With Applications for COVID-19 Pandemic.IEEE internet of things journal · 2021Article
- Exploring the Niche of Rickettsia montanensis (Rickettsiales: Rickettsiaceae) Infection of the American Dog Tick (Acari: Ixodidae), Using Multiple Species Distribution Model Approaches.Journal of medical entomology · 2021Article
- COVID-19 pandemic models revisited with a new proposal: Plenty of epidemiological models outcast the simple population dynamics solution.Chaos, solitons, and fractals · 2021Article
- Article
- Enhanced Gaussian process regression-based forecasting model for COVID-19 outbreak and significance of IoT for its detection.Applied intelligence (Dordrecht, Netherlands) · 2021Article
- Warming temperatures could expose more than 1.3 billion new people to Zika virus risk by 2050.Global change biology · 2021Article
- COVID-19 reopening strategies at the county level in the face of uncertainty: Multiple Models for Outbreak Decision Support.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2020Article
- Coordination among neighbors improves the efficacy of Zika control despite economic costs.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- Synergistic China-US Ecological Research is Essential for Global Emerging Infectious Disease Preparedness.EcoHealth · 2020Review
- Article
- Thermal biology of mosquito-borne disease.Ecology letters · 2019Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Ecologists are increasingly involved in the pandemic prediction process. In the course of the Zika outbreak in the Americas, several ecological models were developed to forecast the potential global distribution of the disease. Conflicting results produced by alternative methods are unresolved, hindering the development of appropriate public health forecasts. We compare ecological niche models and experimentally-driven mechanistic forecasts for Zika transmission in the continental United States. We use generic and uninformed stochastic county-level simulations to demonstrate the downstream epidemiological consequences of conflict among ecological models, and show how assumptions and parameterization in the ecological and epidemiological models propagate uncertainty and produce downstream model conflict. We conclude by proposing a basic consensus method that could resolve conflicting models of potential outbreak geography and seasonality. Our results illustrate the usually-undocumented margin of uncertainty that could emerge from using any one of these predictions without reservation or qualification. In the short term, ecologists face the task of developing better post hoc consensus that accurately forecasts spatial patterns of Zika virus outbreaks. Ultimately, methods are needed that bridge the gap between ecological and epidemiological approaches to predicting transmission and realistically capture both outbreak size and geography.
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