ArticleEcoHealth2018
Climate Change Could Increase the Geographic Extent of Hendra Virus Spillover Risk.
Article in EcoHealth, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
22 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 49 citations in OpenAlex.
- Bat responses to climate change: a systematic review.Biological reviews of the Cambridge Philosophical Society · 2023Pooled it
- The Role of Wildlife and Climate Change in the Emergence of One Health-Related Viral Diseases in Australia.Viruses · 2026Review
- Mapping the Potential Risk of Coronavirus Spillovers in a Global Hotspot.Global change biology · 2025Article
- Climate change, its impact on emerging infectious diseases and new technologies to combat the challenge.Emerging microbes & infections · 2024Review
- Ethical issues in Nipah virus control and research: addressing a neglected disease.Journal of medical ethics · 2024Article
- Interconnecting global threats: climate change, biodiversity loss, and infectious diseases.The Lancet. Planetary health · 2024Review
- The impact of anthropogenic climate change on pediatric viral diseases.Pediatric research · 2024Review
- Bioclimatic Characterisation of Specific Native Californian Pinales and Their Future Suitability under Climate Change.Plants (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Nipah Virus Disease: Epidemiological, Clinical, Diagnostic and Legislative Aspects of This Unpredictable Emerging Zoonosis.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2022Review
- Risk of Viral Infectious Diseases from Live Bats, Primates, Rodents and Carnivores for Sale in Indonesian Wildlife Markets.Viruses · 2022Article
- Viral spillover risk increases with climate change in High Arctic lake sediments.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2022Article
- Article
- Infectious disease in an era of global change.Nature reviews. Microbiology · 2022Review
- Cooperativity mediated by rationally selected combinations of human monoclonal antibodies targeting the henipavirus receptor binding protein.Cell reports · 2021Article
- Hendra virus: Epidemiology dynamics in relation to climate change, diagnostic tests and control measures.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2021Review
- Review
- Life history and population regulation shape demographic competence and influence the maintenance of endemic disease.Nature ecology & evolution · 2021Article
- Article
- Is COVID-19 a Message from Nature?Nanoethics · 2020Article
- Perceptions of Mental Health and Wellbeing Following Residential Displacement and Damage from the 2018 St. John River Flood.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
6 authors at 4 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
Disease risk mapping is important for predicting and mitigating impacts of bat-borne viruses, including Hendra virus (Paramyxoviridae:Henipavirus), that can spillover to domestic animals and thence to humans. We produced two models to estimate areas at potential risk of HeV spillover explained by the climatic suitability for its flying fox reservoir hosts, Pteropus alecto and P. conspicillatus. We included additional climatic variables that might affect spillover risk through other biological processes (such as bat or horse behaviour, plant phenology and bat foraging habitat). Models were fit with a Poisson point process model and a log-Gaussian Cox process. In response to climate change, risk expanded southwards due to an expansion of P. alecto suitable habitat, which increased the number of horses at risk by 175-260% (110,000-165,000). In the northern limits of the current distribution, spillover risk was highly uncertain because of model extrapolation to novel climatic conditions. The extent of areas at risk of spillover from P. conspicillatus was predicted shrink. Due to a likely expansion of P. alecto into these areas, it could replace P. conspicillatus as the main HeV reservoir. We recommend: (1) HeV monitoring in bats, (2) enhancing HeV prevention in horses in areas predicted to be at risk, (3) investigate and develop mitigation strategies for areas that could experience reservoir host replacements.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.