ArticlePLoS neglected tropical diseases2018
Are the London Declaration's 2020 goals sufficient to control Chagas disease?: Modeling scenarios for the Yucatan Peninsula.
Article in PLoS neglected tropical diseases, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 10 papers.
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Who cites it
10 citing papers in PubMed.
- The impact of temperature on canine Chagas disease transmission risk: A modeling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Prevalence and transmission of the most relevant zoonotic and vector-borne pathogens in the Yucatan peninsula: A review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Review
- Effectiveness of Systemic Insecticide Dog Treatment for the Control of Chagas Disease in the Tropics.Biology · 2023Article
- Modeling the impact of xenointoxication in dogs to halt Trypanosoma cruzi transmission.PLoS computational biology · 2023Article
- A Scoping Review of Mathematical Models Used to Investigate the Role of Dogs in Chagas Disease Transmission.Animals : an open access journal from MDPI · 2023Article
- Modeling the impact of xenointoxication in dogs to haltmedRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2023Article
- Effectiveness of fluralaner treatment regimens for the control of canine Chagas disease: A mathematical modeling study.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Review
- The Case for the Development of a Chagas Disease Vaccine: Why? How? When?Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2021Review
- The economic value of identifying and treating Chagas disease patients earlier and the impact on Trypanosoma cruzi transmission.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundThe 2020 Sustainable Development goals call for 100% certified interruption or control of the three main forms of Chagas disease transmission in Latin America. However, how much will achieving these goals to varying degrees control Chagas disease; what is the potential impact of missing these goals and if they are achieved, what may be left?
methodsWe developed a compartmental simulation model that represents the triatomine, human host, and non-human host populations and vector-borne, congenital, and transfusional T. cruzi transmission between them in the domestic and peridomestic settings to evaluate the impact of limiting transmission in a 2,000 person virtual village in Yucatan, Mexico.
resultsInterruption of domestic vectorial transmission had the largest impact on T. cruzi transmission and prevalence in all populations. Most of the gains were achieved within the first few years. Controlling vectorial transmission resulted in a 46.1-83.0% relative reduction in the number of new acute Chagas cases for a 50-100% interruption in domestic vector-host contact. Only controlling congenital transmission led to a 2.4-8.1% (30-100% interruption) relative reduction in the total number of new acute cases and reducing only transfusional transmission led to a 0.1-0.3% (30-100% reduction). Stopping all three forms of transmission resulted in 0.5 total transmission events over five years (compared to 5.0 with no interruption); interrupting all forms by 30% resulted in 3.4 events over five years per 2,000 persons.
conclusionsWhile reducing domestic vectorial, congenital, and transfusional transmission can successfully reduce transmission to humans (up to 82% in one year), achieving the 2020 goals would still result in 0.5 new acute cases per 2,000 over five years. Even if the goals are missed, major gains can be achieved within the first few years. Interrupting transmission should be combined with other efforts such as a vaccine or improved access to care, especially for the population of already infected individuals.
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