ArticleEmerging infectious diseases2018
Influence of Population Immunosuppression and Past Vaccination on Smallpox Reemergence.
Article in Emerging infectious diseases, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Indirect Dispersion of SARS-CoV-2 Live-Attenuated Vaccine and Its Contribution to Herd Immunity.Vaccines · 2023Review
- Monkeypox outbreak, vaccination, and treatment implications for the dermatologic patient: Review and interim guidance from the Medical Dermatology Society.Journal of the American Academy of Dermatology · 2023Review
- Optimizing two-dose vaccine resource allocation to combat a pandemic in the context of limited supply: The case of COVID-19.Frontiers in public health · 2023Article
- The Emergence of Monkeypox: A Global Health Threat.Cureus · 2022Review
- Lactobacilli Infection Case Reports in the Last Three Years and Safety Implications.Nutrients · 2022Review
- Modelling of optimal vaccination strategies in response to a bioterrorism associated smallpox outbreak.Human vaccines & immunotherapeutics · 2021Article
- An overview of tecovirimat for smallpox treatment and expanded anti-orthopoxvirus applications.Expert review of anti-infective therapy · 2021Review
- Article
- Modelling the impact of a smallpox attack in India and influence of disease control measures.BMJ open · 2020Article
- Article
- Public awareness, acceptability and risk perception about infectious diseases dual-use research of concern: a cross-sectional survey.BMJ open · 2020Article
- Health system capacity in Sydney, Australia in the event of a biological attack with smallpox.PloS one · 2019Article
- Confronting the threat of bioterrorism: realities, challenges, and defensive strategies.The Lancet. Infectious diseases · 2019Review
- Bayesian Phylogeography and Pathogenic Characterization of Smallpox Based on HA, ATI, and CrmB Genes.Molecular biology and evolution · 2018Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
We built a SEIR (susceptible, exposed, infected, recovered) model of smallpox transmission for New York, New York, USA, and Sydney, New South Wales, Australia, that accounted for age-specific population immunosuppression and residual vaccine immunity and conducted sensitivity analyses to estimate the effect these parameters might have on smallpox reemergence. At least 19% of New York's and 17% of Sydney's population are immunosuppressed. The highest smallpox infection rates were in persons 0-19 years of age, but the highest death rates were in those >45 years of age. Because of the low level of residual vaccine immunity, immunosuppression was more influential than vaccination on death and infection rates in our model. Despite widespread smallpox vaccination until 1980 in New York, smallpox outbreak severity appeared worse in New York than in Sydney. Immunosuppression is highly prevalent and should be considered in future smallpox outbreak models because excluding this factor probably underestimates death and infection rates.
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