ArticleJournal of epidemiology2018
A Point System for Predicting 10-Year Risk of Developing Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus in Japanese Men: Aichi Workers' Cohort Study.
Article in Journal of epidemiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Hypertriglyceridemia is a dose-dependent risk factor for type 2 diabetes mellitus: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Frontiers in endocrinology · 2025Pooled it
- Risk prediction models for incident type 2 diabetes in Chinese people with intermediate hyperglycemia: a systematic literature review and external validation study.Cardiovascular diabetology · 2022Pooled it
- The Dose-Response Relationship between Alcohol Consumption and the Risk of Type 2 Diabetes among Asian Men: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis of Prospective Cohort Studies.Journal of diabetes research · 2020Pooled it
- Health effects associated with alcohol consumption: a Burden of Proof study.Nature health · 2026Article
- Performance of diabetes risk prediction models: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Endocrine connections · 2025Article
- Association Between Stiffness of the Deep Fibres of the Tibialis Anterior Muscle andJournal of functional morphology and kinesiology · 2025Article
- Association between eveningness and depressive symptoms in daytime workers: A cross-sectional analysis of the Aichi Workers' Cohort Study.Fujita medical journal · 2025Article
- Utility of long-term systolic blood pressure variability for predicting the development of type 2 diabetes mellitus.Nagoya journal of medical science · 2025Article
- Influence of palmar tilt on wrist palmar flexion range-of-motion limitation after conservative treatment of distal radial fractures.Annals of medicine · 2024Article
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- Sex differences in the association between fatty liver and type 2 diabetes incidence in non-obese Japanese: A retrospective cohort study.Journal of diabetes investigation · 2021Article
- Prediction Models for Type 2 Diabetes Risk in the General Population: A Systematic Review of Observational Studies.International journal of endocrinology and metabolism · 2021Article
- Development of a clinical risk score for incident diabetes: A 10-year prospective cohort study.Journal of diabetes investigation · 2021Article
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Authors and funding
11 authors.
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No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundRelatively little evidence exists for type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prediction models from long-term follow-up studies in East Asians. This study aims to develop a point-based prediction model for 10-year risk of developing T2DM in middle-aged Japanese men.
methodsWe followed 3,540 male participants of Aichi Workers' Cohort Study, who were aged 35-64 years and were free of diabetes in 2002, until March 31, 2015. Baseline age, body mass index (BMI), smoking status, alcohol consumption, regular exercise, medication for dyslipidemia, diabetes family history, and blood levels of triglycerides (TG), high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDLC) and fasting blood glucose (FBG) were examined using Cox proportional hazard model. Variables significantly associated with T2DM in univariable models were simultaneously entered in a multivariable model for determination of the final model using backward variable selection. Performance of an existing T2DM model when applied to the current dataset was compared to that obtained in the present study's model.
resultsDuring the median follow-up of 12.2 years, 342 incident T2DM cases were documented. The prediction system using points assigned to age, BMI, smoking status, diabetes family history, and TG and FBG showed reasonable discrimination (c-index: 0.77) and goodness-of-fit (Hosmer-Lemeshow test, P = 0.22). The present model outperformed the previous one in the present subjects.
conclusionThe point system, once validated in the other populations, could be applied to middle-aged Japanese male workers to identify those at high risk of developing T2DM. In addition, further investigation is also required to examine whether the use of this system will reduce incidence.
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