ArticleNicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco2019
Behavioral Economic Purchase Tasks to Estimate Demand for Novel Nicotine/tobacco Products and Prospectively Predict Future Use: Evidence From The Netherlands.
Article in Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco, 2019. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 32 papers, 4 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
32 citing papers in PubMed, 4 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.
- Twenty-five years of simulated demand: A bibliometric and systematic review of hypothetical drug purchase tasks.Journal of the experimental analysis of behavior · 2026Pooled it
- Regulatory Approaches and Implementation of Minimally Addictive Combusted Products.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2022Pooled it
- Nicotine Reduction in Cigarettes: Literature Review and Gap Analysis.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2019Pooled it
- Behavioral economic tobacco demand in relation to cigarette consumption and nicotine dependence: a meta-analysis of cross-sectional relationships.Addiction (Abingdon, England) · 2019Pooled it
- Undervaluing nondrug rewards or overvaluing cocaine? Cocaine demand relates to cocaine use severity more strongly than anhedonia in individuals with cocaine use disorder.Experimental and clinical psychopharmacology · 2025Trial
- Effects of episodic future thinking on reinforcement pathology during smoking cessation treatment among individuals with substance use disorders.Psychopharmacology · 2022Trial
- Repurposing semaglutide as an adjunctive treatment for cocaine use disorder: protocol for a randomised controlled trial.BMJ open · 2026Article
- Probability of fentanyl adulteration in cocaine selectively decreases cocaine demand.Experimental and clinical psychopharmacology · 2026Article
- Preferences and predictors driving opioid-involved polysubstance use profiles and trajectories: a prospective cohort study protocol.BMJ open · 2025Article
- Behavioral Economic Assessment of Contraceptive Use and Abortion Access Among College Cis Women in the U.S.Archives of sexual behavior · 2025Article
- Dose by design: How limits on nicotine flux and puff duration affect the abuse liability of electronic nicotine delivery systems.Drug and alcohol dependence · 2025Article
- Human laboratory models of reward in substance use disorder.Pharmacology, biochemistry, and behavior · 2024Review
- Impact of the European Union's menthol cigarette ban on smoking cessation outcomes: longitudinal findings from the 2020-2021 ITC Netherlands Surveys.Tobacco control · 2024Article
- E-cigarette Price Impacts legal and Black-Market Cigarette Purchasing Under a Hypothetical Reduced-Nicotine Cigarette Standard.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2023Article
- Assessing cocaine motivational value: Comparison of brain reactivity bias toward cocaine cues and cocaine demand.Experimental and clinical psychopharmacology · 2023Article
- Illicit purchasing and use of flavour accessories after the European Union menthol cigarette ban: findings from the 2020-21 ITC Netherlands Surveys.European journal of public health · 2023Article
- Anhedonia modulates benzodiazepine and opioid demand among persons in treatment for opioid use disorder.Frontiers in psychiatry · 2023Article
- Blood Nicotine Predicts the Behavioral Economic Abuse Liability of Reduced-Nicotine Cigarettes.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2022Article
- Demand for Factory-Made Cigarettes and Roll-Your-Own Tobacco and Differences Between Age and Socioeconomic Groups: Findings From the International Tobacco Control Netherlands Survey.Nicotine & tobacco research : official journal of the Society for Research on Nicotine and Tobacco · 2022Article
- Responses to potential nicotine vaping product flavor restrictions among regular vapers using non-tobacco flavors: Findings from the 2020 ITC Smoking and Vaping Survey in Canada, England and the United States.Addictive behaviors · 2022Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
Abstract
introductionThe demand for alternative nicotine/tobacco products is not well established. This paper uses a behavioral economic approach to test whether smokers have differential demand for conventional factory-made, electronic, and very low nicotine content cigarettes (FMCs/ECs/VLNCs) and uses the prospective cohort design to test the predictive validity of demand indices on subsequent use of commercially available FMCs and ECs.
methodsDaily smokers (≥16 years) from the Netherlands completed an online survey in April 2014 (N = 1215). Purchase tasks were completed for FMCs, ECs, and VLNCs. Participants indicated the number of cigarettes they would consume in 24 h, across a range of prices (0-30 euro). The relationship between consumption and price was quantified into four indices of demand (intensity, Pmax, breakpoint, and essential value). A follow-up survey in July 2015 measured FMC and EC use.
resultsAt baseline, greater demand was observed for FMCs relative to ECs and VLNCs across all demand indices, with no difference between ECs and VLNCs. At follow-up, greater baseline FMC demand (intensity, essential value) was associated with lower quit rates and higher relapse. EC demand (Pmax, breakpoint, essential value) was positively associated with any EC use between survey waves, past 30 day EC use, and EC purchase between waves.
conclusionsSmokers valued FMCs more than ECs or VLNCs, and FMCs were less sensitive to price increases. Demand indices predicted use of commercially available products over a 15 month period. To serve as viable substitutes for FMCs, ECs and VLNCs will need to be priced lower than FMCs. IMPLICATIONS: Purchase tasks can be adapted for novel nicotine/tobacco products as a means to efficiently quantify demand and predict use. Among current daily smokers, the demand for ECs and VLNCs is lower than FMCs.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.