ArticleScientific reports2018
Estimating the probability of dengue virus introduction and secondary autochthonous cases in Europe.
Article in Scientific reports, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 31 papers.
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Who cites it
31 citing papers in PubMed.
- Cross-national prediction of imported dengue risk in Northeast Asia using climate, hydrological, and viral epidemiological indicators.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Role of Cellular Mechanisms in Dengue Pathogenesis: Focus on Immune Cells Interactions.Combinatorial chemistry & high throughput screening · 2026Review
- Incidence, Duration, and Risk Factors for Diagnostic Delays Associated with Dengue: A Population-Based Study.The American journal of tropical medicine and hygiene · 2025Article
- Global Circulation Dynamics and Its Determinants of Dengue Virus: A Network Evolution and Model Study from 1990 to 2019.Viruses · 2025Article
- Estimating the incidence of dengue in international air travelers from non-endemic countries between 2010-2019.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2025Article
- Quantifying infectious disease epidemic risks: A practical approach for seasonal pathogens.PLoS computational biology · 2025Article
- Potential risks of Oropouche virus importation into Europe.Journal of travel medicine · 2024Article
- Epidemiology of travel-associated dengue from 2007 to 2022: A GeoSentinel analysis.Journal of travel medicine · 2024Article
- Modeling the Regional Distribution of International Travelers in Spain to Estimate Imported Cases of Dengue and Malaria: Statistical Inference and Validation Study.JMIR public health and surveillance · 2024Article
- Early diagnosis of dengue: Diagnostic utility of the SD BIOLINE Dengue Duo rapid test in Reunion Island.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- New Zealand travellers to high-risk destinations for arbovirus infection make little effort to avoid mosquito bites.Journal of the Royal Society of New Zealand · 2023Article
- Mathematical model estimation of dengue fever transmission risk from Southeast and South Asia into Japan between 2016 and 2018.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2023Article
- The epidemiology and evolutionary dynamics of massive dengue outbreak in China, 2019.Frontiers in microbiology · 2023Article
- Dengue Fever in Italy: The "Eternal Return" of an Emerging Arboviral Disease.Tropical medicine and infectious disease · 2022Review
- Climate change and infectious disease in Europe: Impact, projection and adaptation.The Lancet regional health. Europe · 2021Review
- Early warning systems (EWSs) for chikungunya, dengue, malaria, yellow fever, and Zika outbreaks: What is the evidence? A scoping review.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Article
- COVID-19 in comparison with other emerging viral diseases: risk of geographic spread via travel.Tropical diseases, travel medicine and vaccines · 2021Review
- What Is the Impact of Lockdowns on Dengue?Current infectious disease reports · 2021Review
- Mitogenome diversity of Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus: Detection of multiple introduction events in Portugal.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2020Article
- The Ecology of Protective Behaviors: A Study in New Risk Areas for Mosquito-Borne Diseases.EcoHealth · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
10 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Given the speed of air travel, diseases even with a short viremia such as dengue can be easily exported to dengue naïve areas within 24 hours. We set out to estimate the risk of dengue virus introductions via travelers into Europe and number of secondary autochthonous cases as a result of the introduction. We applied mathematical modeling to estimate the number of dengue-viremic air passengers from 16 dengue-endemic countries to 27 European countries, taking into account the incidence of dengue in the exporting countries, travel volume and the probability of being viremic at the time of travel. Our models estimate a range from zero to 167 air passengers who are dengue-viremic at the time of travel from dengue endemic countries to each of the 27 receiving countries in one year. Germany receives the highest number of imported dengue-viremic air passengers followed by France and the United Kingdom. Our findings estimate 10 autochthonous secondary asymptomatic and symptomatic dengue infections, caused by the expected 124 infected travelers who arrived in Italy in 2012. The risk of onward transmission in Europe is reassuringly low, except where Aedes aegypti is present.
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