Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29543895›Full record

ArticlePloS one2018

A novel learning algorithm to predict individual survival after liver transplantation for primary sclerosing cholangitis.

Axel Andres, Aldo Montano-Loza, Russell Greiner, Max Uhlich, Ping Jin, Bret Hoehn, David Bigam, James Andrew Mark Shapiro, Norman Mark Kneteman

Open access · goldAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 22 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
22citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
2.5field-weighted citation impact, top 9% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

22 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 41 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Review
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Review
  12. Article
  13. Review
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Review
  17. Review
  18. Article
  19. Essential updates 2018/2019: Liver transplantation.Annals of gastroenterological surgery · 2020
    Review
  20. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors at 3 institutions in 2 countries.

Axel AndresTransplantation Surgery, Dept of Surgery, University of Alberta Hospital, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.ORCID 0000-0003-3329-0801
Aldo Montano-LozaAlberta Transplant Institute, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Russell GreinerDept of Computing Science, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.
Max UhlichAlberta Innovates Centre for Machine Learning, Edmonton, Canada.
Ping JinDept of Computing Science, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Canada.
Bret HoehnAlberta Innovates Centre for Machine Learning, Edmonton, Canada.
David BigamTransplantation Surgery, Dept of Surgery, University of Alberta Hospital, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
James Andrew Mark ShapiroTransplantation Surgery, Dept of Surgery, University of Alberta Hospital, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Norman Mark KnetemanTransplantation Surgery, Dept of Surgery, University of Alberta Hospital, Edmonton, Alberta, Canada.
Alberta Hospital Edmonton · CAUniversity of Alberta · CAAlberta Innovates · CA

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Deciding who should receive a liver transplant (LT) depends on both urgency and utility. Most survival scores are validated through discriminative tests, which compare predicted outcomes between patients. Assessing post-transplant survival utility is not discriminate, but should be "calibrated" to be effective. There are currently no such calibrated models. We developed and validated a novel calibrated model to predict individual survival after LT for Primary Sclerosing Cholangitis (PSC). We applied a software tool, PSSP, to adult patients in the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients (n = 2769) who received a LT for PSC between 2002 and 2013; this produced a model for predicting individual survival distributions for novel patients. We also developed an appropriate evaluation measure, D-calibration, to validate this model. The learned PSSP model showed an excellent D-calibration (p = 1.0), and passed the single-time calibration test (Hosmer-Lemeshow p-value of over 0.05) at 0.25, 1, 5 and 10 years. In contrast, the model based on traditional Cox regression showed worse calibration on long-term survival and failed at 10 years (Hosmer-Lemeshow p value = 0.027). The calculator and visualizer are available at: http://pssp.srv.ualberta.ca/calculator/liver_transplant_2002. In conclusion we present a new tool that accurately estimates individual post liver transplantation survival.

Indexed as

AdultAlgorithmsCholangitis, SclerosingFemaleGraft SurvivalHumansLiver TransplantationMaleMiddle AgedModels, TheoreticalPrognosisRegression AnalysisSoftwareTreatment Outcome

Identifiers

PMID29543895
PMCPMC5854273
OpenAlexW2793279627

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.