Observational studyJournal of the American College of Cardiology2018
Short-Term Global Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction in Older Adults.
Observational study in Journal of the American College of Cardiology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 45 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
45 citing papers in PubMed, 85 citations in OpenAlex.
- Plasma proteome of the EAT-Lancet diet and long-term risks of cardiovascular disease and mortality.Food & function · 2026Article
- EAT-Lancet Diet-Associated Serum Metabolites Are Linked to Cardiovascular Disease and Mortality.The Journal of nutrition · 2026Article
- Metabolic signature across Life's Essential 8 profiles is heterogenous and may predict cardiovascular disease and mortality.Metabolism open · 2026Article
- Midlife ICAM-1 levels may predict cardiovascular disease and cognitive decline in latelife: Insights from the HeartSCORE study.Atherosclerosis plus · 2025Article
- Digital intelligence for cardiometabolic health management in older adults: protocol for a community-based prospective cohort study.BMC geriatrics · 2025Article
- Cardiovascular Risk Prediction in Older Adults.Current atherosclerosis reports · 2025Review
- Magnesium-rich diet score is inversely associated with incident cardiovascular disease: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) study.European journal of preventive cardiology · 2025Article
- Does Adiponectin Inform Cardiovascular Risk in Older Adults?: The ARIC Study.JACC. Advances · 2025Article
- Development and validation of a five-year cardiovascular risk assessment tool for Asian adults aged 75 years and older.BMC geriatrics · 2025Article
- Statin Therapy for Primary and Secondary Prevention in Older Adults.Current atherosclerosis reports · 2024Review
- Cholesterol Lowering in Older Adults: Should We Wait for Further Evidence?Current atherosclerosis reports · 2024Review
- Pitfalls in Developing Machine Learning Models for Predicting Cardiovascular Diseases: Challenge and Solutions.Journal of medical Internet research · 2024Article
- What factors preventing the older adults in China from living longer: a machine learning study.BMC geriatrics · 2024Article
- Factors Associated With Fatigue in Persons With Atrial Fibrillation in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.Biological research for nursing · 2024Article
- Validation of the European SCORE2 models in a Canadian primary care cohort.European journal of preventive cardiology · 2024Article
- Association of interleukin-6 and interleukin-18 with cardiovascular disease in older adults: Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities study.European journal of preventive cardiology · 2023Article
- Cardiovascular Disease and Alzheimer's Disease: The Heart-Brain Axis.Journal of the American Heart Association · 2023Review
- Age-Related Differences in the Contribution of Systolic Blood Pressure and Biomarkers to Cardiovascular Disease Risk Prediction: The Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) Study.The American journal of cardiology · 2023Article
- Proteomic cardiovascular risk assessment in chronic kidney disease.European heart journal · 2023Article
- Biomarkers of aging.Science China. Life sciences · 2023Review
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Authors and funding
13 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCurrent prevention guidelines recommend using the Pooled Cohort Equation (PCE) for 10-year atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk assessment. However, the PCE has serious limitations in older adults: it excludes heart failure (HF) hospitalization, estimates 10-year risk, which may not be the most relevant time frame, and is not indicated for individuals age >79 years.
objectivesThis study sought to determine whether adding biomarkers to PCE variables improves global CVD (coronary heart disease, stroke, and HF) risk prediction in older adults over a shorter time period.
methodsAtherosclerosis Risk in Communities study participants without prevalent CVD including HF (n = 4,760; age 75.4 ± 5.1 years) were followed for incident global CVD events. Adding N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide, high-sensitivity cardiac troponin T, and high-sensitivity C-reactive protein to the PCE and a "lab model" with the biomarkers, age, race, and gender were assessed for prediction improvement. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) and net reclassification index (NRI) were calculated.
resultsOver median follow-up of ∼4 years, incident HF was the leading CVD event (n = 193 vs. 118 coronary heart disease and 81 stroke events). Compared to the PCE, each biomarker improved risk prediction. The largest improvement in risk prediction metrics was with the addition of all 3 biomarkers (ΔAUC 0.103; continuous NRI 0.484). The lab model also performed better than the PCE model (ΔAUC 0.091, continuous NRI 0.355).
conclusionsAdding biomarkers to the PCE or a simpler "lab model" improves short-term global CVD risk prediction and may be useful to inform short-term preventive strategies in older adults.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.