ArticlePLoS computational biology2018
Use of temperature to improve West Nile virus forecasts.
Article in PLoS computational biology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 25 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
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Who cites it
25 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Mechanistic models for West Nile virus transmission: a systematic review of features, aims and parametrization.Proceedings. Biological sciences · 2024Pooled it
- A data-parsimonious model for long-term risk assessments of West Nile virus spillover.Scientific reports · 2026Article
- Extreme flood and WNV transmission in Thessaly, Greece, 2023.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Evaluation of the 2022 West Nile virus forecasting challenge, USA.Parasites & vectors · 2025Article
- Early warning system of the seasonal west nile virus infection risk in humans in northern greece, 2020-2024.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Exploring the role of temperature and other environmental factors in West Nile virus incidence and prediction in California counties from 2017-2022 using a zero-inflated model.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2024Article
- A Spatially Resolved and Environmentally Informed Forecast Model of West Nile Virus in Coachella Valley, California.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Multi-Model Prediction of West Nile Virus Neuroinvasive Disease With Machine Learning for Identification of Important Regional Climatic Drivers.GeoHealth · 2023Article
- Predicted reduction in transmission from deployment of ivermectin-treated birdfeeders for local control of West Nile virus.Epidemics · 2023Article
- The dynamics of early-stage transmission of COVID-19: A novel quantification of the role of global temperature.Gondwana research : international geoscience journal · 2023Article
- Article
- Modelling the West Nile virus force of infection in the European human population.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2022Article
- Epidemiology and Clinical Manifestation of West Nile Virus Infections of Equines in Hungary, 2007-2020.Viruses · 2022Article
- Integrated Forecasts Based on Public Health Surveillance and Meteorological Data Predict West Nile Virus in a High-Risk Region of North America.Environmental health perspectives · 2022Article
- A climate-dependent spatial epidemiological model for the transmission risk of West Nile virus at local scale.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2021Article
- A proposed framework for the development and qualitative evaluation of West Nile virus models and their application to local public health decision-making.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2021Review
- A Temperature Conditioned Markov Chain Model for Predicting the Dynamics of Mosquito Vectors of Disease.Insects · 2021Article
- Suicide and the agent-host-environment triad: leveraging surveillance sources to inform prevention.Psychological medicine · 2021Article
- Epidemiology and Clinical Presentation of West Nile Virus Infection in Horses in South Africa, 2016-2017.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2020Article
- Epidemiological hypothesis testing using a phylogeographic and phylodynamic framework.Nature communications · 2020Article
Corrections and comments
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11 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Ecological and laboratory studies have demonstrated that temperature modulates West Nile virus (WNV) transmission dynamics and spillover infection to humans. Here we explore whether inclusion of temperature forcing in a model depicting WNV transmission improves WNV forecast accuracy relative to a baseline model depicting WNV transmission without temperature forcing. Both models are optimized using a data assimilation method and two observed data streams: mosquito infection rates and reported human WNV cases. Each coupled model-inference framework is then used to generate retrospective ensemble forecasts of WNV for 110 outbreak years from among 12 geographically diverse United States counties. The temperature-forced model improves forecast accuracy for much of the outbreak season. From the end of July until the beginning of October, a timespan during which 70% of human cases are reported, the temperature-forced model generated forecasts of the total number of human cases over the next 3 weeks, total number of human cases over the season, the week with the highest percentage of infectious mosquitoes, and the peak percentage of infectious mosquitoes that on average increased absolute forecast accuracy 5%, 10%, 12%, and 6%, respectively, over the non-temperature forced baseline model. These results indicate that use of temperature forcing improves WNV forecast accuracy and provide further evidence that temperature influences rates of WNV transmission. The findings provide a foundation for implementation of a statistically rigorous system for real-time forecast of seasonal WNV outbreaks and their use as a quantitative decision support tool for public health officials and mosquito control programs.
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