Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29520061›Full record

ArticleNature communications2018

Strong phenotypic plasticity limits potential for evolutionary responses to climate change.

Vicencio Oostra, Marjo Saastamoinen, Bas J Zwaan, Christopher W Wheat

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Nature communications, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 79 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
79citing papers in PubMed, 2 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

79 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Sparse evidence for selection on phenotypic plasticity in response to temperature.Philosophical transactions of the Royal Society of London. Series B, Biological sciences · 2019
    Pooled it
  3. Article
  4. Article
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Article
  9. Article
  10. Article
  11. Article
  12. Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Detecting environmentally dependent developmental plasticity in fossilized individuals.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2025
    Article
  20. Article

19 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Vicencio OostraDepartment of Genetics, Evolution and Environment, University College London, The Darwin Building, Gower Street, London, WC1E 6BT, UK. v.oostra@ucl.ac.uk.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1273-1906
Marjo SaastamoinenOrganismal and Evolutionary Biology Research Programme, University of Helsinki, PO Box 65, Helsinki, FI-00014, Finland.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0001-7009-2527
Bas J ZwaanDepartment of Plant Sciences, Laboratory of Genetics, Wageningen University, PO Box 16, 6700AA, Wageningen, The Netherlands.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8221-4998
Christopher W WheatDepartment of Zoology, Population Genetics, Stockholm University, S-10691, Stockholm, Sweden.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Phenotypic plasticity, the expression of multiple phenotypes from one genome, is a widespread adaptation to short-term environmental fluctuations, but whether it facilitates evolutionary adaptation to climate change remains contentious. Here, we investigate seasonal plasticity and adaptive potential in an Afrotropical butterfly expressing distinct phenotypes in dry and wet seasons. We assess the transcriptional architecture of plasticity in a full-factorial analysis of heritable and environmental effects across 72 individuals, and reveal pervasive gene expression differences between the seasonal phenotypes. Strikingly, intra-population genetic variation for plasticity is largely absent, consistent with specialisation to a particular environmental cue reliably predicting seasonal transitions. Under climate change, deteriorating accuracy of predictive cues will likely aggravate maladaptive phenotype-environment mismatches and increase selective pressures on reaction norms. However, the observed paucity of genetic variation for plasticity limits evolutionary responses, potentially weakening prospects for population persistence. Thus, seasonally plastic species may be especially vulnerable to climate change.

Identifiers

PMID29520061
PMCPMC5843647

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.