ArticleBMJ global health2018
Simulating the impact of excise taxation for disease prevention in low-income and middle-income countries: an application to South Africa.
Article in BMJ global health, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 16 papers.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
16 citing papers in PubMed.
- Article
- Understanding the role of 'software' in health system capacity for non-communicable disease response: hypertension care in rural Coastal Kenya.Health policy and planning · 2026Article
- A systematic review of operational research modelling for alcohol consumption and its consequences.Health systems (Basingstoke, England) · 2026Review
- (Un)sweetened deal? Young people's views on the South African Health Promotion Levy and food in Khayelitsha, Cape Town.PLOS global public health · 2026Article
- The health and economic impact and cost effectiveness of interventions for the prevention and control of overweight and obesity in Kenya: a stakeholder engaged modelling study.Cost effectiveness and resource allocation : C/E · 2023Article
- The role of taxation measures in the management of harmful products, services, and practices in Iran: a qualitative study.BMC public health · 2022Article
- Explaining specific taxes management and use in the health sector: a qualitative study.BMC health services research · 2022Article
- Equity impact of minimum unit pricing of alcohol on household health and finances among rich and poor drinkers in South Africa.BMJ global health · 2022Article
- Article
- Operational research to support equitable non-communicable disease policy in low-income and middle-income countries in the sustainable development era: a scoping review.BMJ global health · 2020Article
- Awareness and perceptions regarding taxation and health warnings related to sugar-sweetened beverages and the factors associated with these among visitors of a general out-patient clinic in Bhopal, India.Journal of family medicine and primary care · 2020Article
- The potential health and revenue effects of a tax on sugar sweetened beverages in Zambia.BMJ global health · 2020Article
- The potential global gains in health and revenue from increased taxation of tobacco, alcohol and sugar-sweetened beverages: a modelling analysis.BMJ global health · 2020Article
- The distributional impact of taxing sugar-sweetened beverages: findings from an extended cost-effectiveness analysis in South Africa.BMJ global health · 2019Article
- The potential for using alcohol and tobacco taxes to fund prevention and control of noncommunicable diseases in Caribbean Community countries.Revista panamericana de salud publica = Pan American journal of public health · 2018Article
- PASCAR and WHF Cardiovascular Diseases Scorecard project.Cardiovascular journal of AfricaArticle
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
introductionExcise taxes are policy tools that have been applied internationally with some success to reduce consumption of products adversely impacting population health including tobacco, alcohol and increasingly junk foods and sugary beverages. As in other low-income and middle-income countries, South Africa faces a growing burden of lifestyle diseases; accordingly we simulate the impact of multiple excise tax interventions in this setting.
methodsWe construct a mathematical model to simulate the health and revenue effects of increased excise taxes, which is adaptable to a variety of settings given its limited data requirements. Applying the model to South Africa, we simulate the impact of increased tax rates on tobacco and beer and of the introduction of a tax on sugar-sweetened beverages (SSB). Drawing on surveys of product usage and risk factor prevalence, the model uses a potential impact fraction to simulate the health effects of tax interventions.
resultsAdopting an excise rate of 60% on tobacco would result in a gain of 858 923 life-years (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 480 188 to 1 310 329), while adopting an excise rate of 25% on beer would result in a gain of 568 063 life-years (95% UI 412 110 to 775 560) and the adoption of a 20% tax on SSBs would result in a gain of 688 719 life-years (95% UI 321 788 to 1 079 653).
conclusionMore aggressive excise tax policies on tobacco, beer and SSBs in South Africa could result in meaningful improvements in population health and raised revenue.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.