Predicting the impact of selection for scrapie resistance on PRNP genotype frequencies in goats.

The European Union has implemented breeding programmes to increase scrapie resistance in sheep. A similar approach can be applied also in goats since the K222 allele provides a level of resistance equivalent to that of ARR in sheep. The European Food Safety Authority stated that breeding for resistance could be offered as an option for Member States to control classical scrapie in goats. We assessed the impact of different breeding strategies on PRNP genotype frequencies using a mathematical model that describes in detail the evolution of K222 in two goat breeds, Chamois Coloured and Saanen. Different patterns of age structure and replacement rate were modelled as factors affecting response to selection. Breeding for scrapie resistance can be implemented in goats, even though the initial K222 frequencies in these breeds are not particularly favourable and the rate at which the resistant animals increase, both breeding and slaughtered for meat production, is slow. If the goal is not to achieve the fixation of resistance allele, it is advisable to carry out selection only until a desired frequency of K222-carriers has been attained. Nucleus selection vs. selection on the overall populations is less expensive but takes longer to reach the desired output. The programme performed on the two goat breeds serves as a model of the response the selection could have in other breeds that show different initial frequencies and population structure. In this respect, the model has a general applicability.