Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29507246›Full record

ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2018

The seasonality of nonpolio enteroviruses in the United States: Patterns and drivers.

Margarita Pons-Salort, M Steven Oberste, Mark A Pallansch, Glen R Abedi, Saki Takahashi, Bryan T Grenfell, Nicholas C Grassly

Open access · greenAbstract readHistorical Article
In one paragraph

Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 73 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
73citing papers in PubMed
9.4field-weighted citation impact, top 1% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

73 citing papers in PubMed, 121 citations in OpenAlex.

  1. Article
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  3. Emergence of an echovirus 17 subtype causing a viral meningitis outbreak, Israel, 2025 to 2026.Euro surveillance : bulletin Europeen sur les maladies transmissibles = European communicable disease bulletin · 2026
    Article
  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Article
  7. Article
  8. Review
  9. Article
  10. Article
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  12. Prevalence and epidemiology of enterovirus species in a pediatric oncology patient population.Journal of clinical virology : the official publication of the Pan American Society for Clinical Virology · 2025
    Article
  13. Article
  14. Article
  15. Review
  16. Article
  17. Article
  18. Article
  19. Article
  20. Article

13 more citing papers are in PubMed but not listed here.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

7 authors at 4 institutions in 2 countries.

Margarita Pons-SalortDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom; m.pons-salort@imperial.ac.uk.ORCID 0000-0001-5597-9285
M Steven ObersteDivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333.
Mark A PallanschDivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333.
Glen R AbediDivision of Viral Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, GA 30333.
Saki TakahashiDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Bryan T GrenfellDepartment of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ 08544.
Nicholas C GrasslyDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology, Imperial College London, London W2 1PG, United Kingdom.
Centers for Disease Control and Prevention · USImperial College London · GBNational Institutes of Health · USPrinceton University · US

Funding

Scientific and Technical Computing CoreP2CHD047879 · NICHD · PRINCETON UNIVERSITY · PI SALGANIK, MATTHEW J. · 2014 to 2018
$2.0M
Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1NICHD NIH HHS P2C HD047879Wellcome TrustWellcome Trust 106073/Z/14/Z
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Nonpolio enteroviruses are diverse and common viruses that can circulate year-round but tend to peak in summer. Although most infections are asymptomatic, they can result in a wide range of neurological and other diseases. Many serotypes circulate every year, and different serotypes predominate in different years, but the drivers of their geographical and temporal dynamics are not understood. We use national enterovirus surveillance data collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention during 1983-2013, as well as demographic and climatic data for the same period, to study the patterns and drivers of the seasonality of these infections. We find that the seasonal pattern of enterovirus cases is spatially structured in the United States and similar to that observed for historical prevaccination poliomyelitis (1931-1954). We identify latitudinal gradients for the amplitude and the timing of the peak of cases, meaning that those are more regularly distributed all year-round in the south and have a more pronounced peak that arrives later toward the north. The peak is estimated to occur between July and September across the United States, and 1 month earlier than that for historical poliomyelitis. Using mixed-effects models, we find that climate, but not demography, is likely to drive the seasonal pattern of enterovirus cases and that the dew point temperature alone explains ∼30% of the variation in the intensity of transmission. Our study contributes to a better understanding of the epidemiology of enteroviruses, demonstrates important similarities in their circulation dynamics with polioviruses, and identifies potential drivers of their seasonality.

Indexed as

SeasonsClimateEnterovirusEnterovirus InfectionsHistory, 20th CenturyHistory, 21st CenturyHumansPopulation SurveillanceUnited StatesclimateenteroviruspoliomyelitisseasonalityUnited States

Identifiers

PMID29507246
PMCPMC5866597
OpenAlexW2791901668

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.