Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29506982›Full record

ArticleDiabetes care2018

Obesity Progression Between Young Adulthood and Midlife and Incident Diabetes: A Retrospective Cohort Study of U.S. Adults.

Andrew Stokes, Jason M Collins, Bethany F Grant, Robin F Scamuffa, Chia-Wen Hsiao, Stephen S Johnston, Eric M Ammann, JoAnn E Manson, Samuel H Preston

Registry-linked trialAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Diabetes care, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT05604950 (Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute), which is not on this map. Cited by 50 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
50citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT05604950 completednot on this map

Sichuan Cancer Hospital & Institute

Typeobservational_patient_registrySponsorYongtao HanRan2009 to 2022Enrolled2ConditionsEsophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma, Esophagectomy, Radiotherapy, ChemotherapyArmsSince the data were collected retrospectively, there were no interventions
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

50 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Article
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  4. Review
  5. Article
  6. Association of past obesity and BMI trajectories with cancer mortality: a prospective cohort study.Archives of public health = Archives belges de sante publique · 2025
    Article
  7. MASLD, At-Risk MASH and Increased Liver Stiffness Are Associated With Young Adulthood Obesity Without Residual Risk After Losing Obesity.Liver international : official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver · 2025
    Article
  8. Review
  9. Weight change across adulthood in relation to the risk of COPD.Environmental health and preventive medicine · 2025
    Article
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Andrew StokesDepartment of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA acstokes@bu.edu.ORCID 0000-0002-8502-3636
Jason M CollinsDepartment of Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
Bethany F GrantEthicon, Cincinnati, OH.
Robin F ScamuffaEthicon, Cincinnati, OH.
Chia-Wen HsiaoEthicon, Cincinnati, OH.
Stephen S JohnstonJohnson & Johnson, New Brunswick, NJ.
Eric M AmmannJohnson & Johnson, New Brunswick, NJ.
JoAnn E MansonDivision of Preventive Medicine, Brigham and Women's Hospital, and Department of Epidemiology, Harvard T.H. Chan School of Public Health, Boston, MA.
Samuel H PrestonDepartment of Sociology and Population Studies Center, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, PA.

Funding

The Contribution of Diabetes to Mortality in the United StatesR03AG055724 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PENNSYLVANIA · PI ELO, IRMA T., PRESTON, SAMUEL H · 2017 to 2018
$177k
NIA NIH HHS R03 AG055724
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveUnderstanding how changes in weight over the life course shape risk for diabetes is critical for the prevention of diabetes. Using data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES), we investigated the association between self-reported weight change from young adulthood to midlife and incident diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND

methodsWe categorized individuals into four weight-change groups: those who remained nonobese (stable nonobese), those who moved from an obese BMI to a nonobese BMI (losing), those who moved from a nonobese BMI to an obese BMI (gaining), and those who remained obese (stable obese). Diabetes status was determined by self-report of a prior diagnosis, and age at diagnosis was used to establish time of diabetes onset. Hazard ratios (HRs) relating weight change to incident diabetes over 10 years of follow-up were calculated using Cox models adjusting for covariates.

resultsThose who were obese and lost weight exhibited a significantly lower risk (HR 0.33; 95% CI 0.14, 0.76) of diabetes compared with those with stable obesity. We also observed lower risk among those who were stable nonobese (HR 0.22; 95% CI 0.18, 0.28) and those in the gaining category (HR 0.70; 95% CI 0.57, 0.87). Further, there was evidence of an increased incidence of diabetes among obese individuals who lost weight compared with individuals who were stable nonobese; however, weight loss was rare, and the association was not statistically significant. If those who were obese had become nonobese during the 10-year period, we estimate that 9.1% (95% CI 5.3, 12.8) of observed diabetes cases could have been averted, and if the population had maintained a normal BMI during the period, 64.2% (95% CI 59.4, 68.3) of cases could have been averted.

conclusionsThe findings from this study underscore the importance of population-level approaches to the prevention and treatment of obesity across the life course of individuals.

Indexed as

AdultAgedAged, 80 and overBody Mass IndexBody WeightDiabetes ComplicationsDiabetes MellitusDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansIncidenceMaleMiddle AgedNutrition SurveysObesityRetrospective Studies

Identifiers

PMID29506982
PMCPMC5911788

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.