Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29506269›Full record

ArticleThe Journal of infectious diseases2018

Molecular Epidemiology of HIV-1 Subtype B Reveals Heterogeneous Transmission Risk: Implications for Intervention and Control.

Erik M Volz, Stephane Le Vu, Oliver Ratmann, Anna Tostevin, David Dunn, Chloe Orkin, Siobhan O'Shea, Valerie Delpech, Alison Brown, Noel Gill and 2 more

Open access · hybridAbstract read
In one paragraph

Article in The Journal of infectious diseases, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 20 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
20citing papers in PubMed
3.2field-weighted citation impact, top 8% of its field
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

20 citing papers in PubMed, 31 citations in OpenAlex.

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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors at 5 institutions in 1 country.

Erik M VolzDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit on Modeling Methodology, Imperial College London.
Stephane Le VuDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit on Modeling Methodology, Imperial College London.
Oliver RatmannDepartment of Infectious Disease Epidemiology and the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit on Modeling Methodology, Imperial College London.
Anna TostevinInstitute for Global Health, University College London.
David DunnInstitute for Global Health, University College London.
Chloe OrkinBarts Health NHS Trust, London.
Siobhan O'SheaInfection Sciences, Viapath Analytics, Guy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust, London.
Valerie DelpechPublic Health England, London.
Alison BrownPublic Health England, London.
Noel GillPublic Health England, London.
Christophe FraserLi Ka Shing Centre for Health Information and Discovery, Oxford University, United Kingdom.
UK HIV Drug Resistance Database
National Institute for Health Research · GBPublic Health England · GBUniversity College London · GBBarts Health NHS Trust · GBGuy's and St Thomas' NHS Foundation Trust · GB

Funding

Reconstructing HIV Epidemics from HIV PhylogeneticsR01AI087520 · NIAID · TRIAD NATIONAL SECURITY, LLC · PI Thomas K. Leitner · 2010 to 2026
$11.2M
Medical Research Council MC_U122886351Medical Research Council MC_UU_12023/15Medical Research Council MR/R015600/1NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI087520
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: The impact of HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) depends on infections averted by protecting vulnerable individuals as well as infections averted by preventing transmission by those who would have been infected if not receiving PrEP. Analysis of HIV phylogenies reveals risk factors for transmission, which we examine as potential criteria for allocating PrEP. Methods: We analyzed 6912 HIV-1 partial pol sequences from men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United Kingdom combined with global reference sequences and patient-level metadata. Population genetic models were developed that adjust for stage of infection, global migration of HIV lineages, and changing incidence of infection through time. Models were extended to simulate the effects of providing susceptible MSM with PrEP. Results: We found that young age <25 years confers higher risk of HIV transmission (relative risk = 2.52 [95% confidence interval, 2.32-2.73]) and that young MSM are more likely to transmit to one another than expected by chance. Simulated interventions indicate that 4-fold more infections can be averted over 5 years by focusing PrEP on young MSM. Conclusions: Concentrating PrEP doses on young individuals can avert more infections than random allocation.

Indexed as

AdultFemaleHIV-1HIV InfectionsHomosexuality, MaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedModels, GeneticMolecular EpidemiologyPre-Exposure ProphylaxisRiskSexual and Gender Minorities

Identifiers

PMID29506269
PMCPMC5913615
OpenAlexW2794406673

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.