ArticlePloS one2018
Assessing the probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in commercial Australian poultry operations using an expert opinion elicitation.
Article in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. An erratum has been issued. Cited by 11 papers.
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Who cites it
11 citing papers in PubMed.
- A Review of Avian Influenza Virus Exposure Patterns and Risks Among Occupational Populations.Veterinary sciences · 2025Review
- Amplification of avian influenza virus circulation along poultry marketing chains in Bangladesh: A controlled field experiment.Preventive veterinary medicine · 2024Article
- Avian infectious bronchitis virus (AIBV) review by continent.Frontiers in cellular and infection microbiology · 2024Review
- Key Aspects of Coronavirus Avian Infectious Bronchitis Virus.Pathogens (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Review
- Informing influenza pandemic preparedness using commercial poultry farmer knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) surrounding biosecurity and self-reported avian influenza outbreaks in Nepal.One health (Amsterdam, Netherlands) · 2020Article
- Phylodynamic analysis and evaluation of the balance between anthropic and environmental factors affecting IBV spreading among Italian poultry farms.Scientific reports · 2020Article
- Mathematically modeling spillovers of an emerging infectious zoonosis with an intermediate host.PloS one · 2020Article
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- Low- and High-Pathogenic Avian Influenza H5 and H7 Spread Risk Assessment Within and Between Australian Commercial Chicken Farms.Frontiers in veterinary science · 2018Article
Corrections and comments
- Erratum issued
Authors and funding
9 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
The objective of this study was to elicit experts' opinions and gather estimates on the perceived probability of introduction and spread of avian influenza (AI) virus in the Australian broiler and layer industry. Using a modified Delphi method and a 4-step elicitation process, 11 experts were asked to give initial individual estimates for the various pathways and practices in the presented scenarios using a questionnaire. Following this, a workshop was conducted to present group averages of estimates and discussion was facilitated to obtain final individual estimates. For each question, estimates for all experts were combined using a discrete distribution, with weights allocated representing the level of expertise. Indirect contact with wild birds either via a contaminated water source or fomites was considered the most likely pathway of introduction of low pathogenic avian influenza (LPAI) on poultry farms. Presence of a water body near the poultry farm was considered a potential pathway for introduction only when the operation type was free range and the water body was within 500m distance from the shed. The probability that LPAI will mutate to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) was considered to be higher in layer farms. Shared personnel, equipment and aerosol dispersion were the most likely pathways of shed to shed spread of the virus. For LPAI and HPAI spread from farm to farm, shared pick-up trucks for broiler and shared egg trays and egg pallets for layer farms were considered the most likely pathways. Findings from this study provide an insight on most influential practices on the introduction and spread of AI virus among commercial poultry farms in Australia, as elicited from opinions of experts. These findings will be used to support parameterization of a modelling study assessing the risk of AI introduction and spread among commercial poultry farms in Australia.
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