Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29489059›Full record

ArticleJournal of the International AIDS Society2018

Identification and validation of a multi-assay algorithm for cross-sectional HIV incidence estimation in populations with subtype C infection.

Oliver Laeyendecker, Jacob Konikoff, Douglas E Morrison, Ronald Brookmeyer, Jing Wang, Connie Celum, Charles S Morrison, Quarraisha Abdool Karim, Audrey E Pettifor, Susan H Eshleman

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Journal of the International AIDS Society, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 24 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
24citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

24 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
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  5. Study design approaches for future active-controlled HIV prevention trials.Statistical communications in infectious diseases · 2024
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  18. Modeling methods for estimating HIV incidence: a mathematical review.Theoretical biology & medical modelling · 2020
    Review
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4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Oliver LaeyendeckerLaboratory of Immunoregulation, NIAID, NIH, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-6429-4760
Jacob KonikoffDepartment of Biostatistics, Bloomberg School of Public Health, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.
Douglas E MorrisonDepartment of Biostatistics, UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Ronald BrookmeyerDepartment of Biostatistics, UCLA School of Public Health, Los Angeles, CA, USA.
Jing WangVaccine and Infectious Disease Division, SCHARP-FHCRC, Seattle, WA, USA.
Connie CelumDepartments of Global Health, Medicine, and Epidemiology, University of Washington, Seattle, WA, USA.
Charles S MorrisonClinical and Epidemiologic Sciences, Durham, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-9873-3194
Quarraisha Abdool KarimCentre for the AIDS Programme of Research in South Africa (CAPRISA), University of KwaZulu-Natal, Durban, South Africa.
Audrey E PettiforDepartment of Epidemiology, University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, NC, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3387-0817
Susan H EshlemanDepartment of Pathology, School of Medicine, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-4587-791X

Funding

SDMC: HPTN 084 Pregnancy SupplementUM1AI068617 · NIAID · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI Elizabeth Renata Brown, Deborah J Donnell · 2011 to 2026
$204.9M
LC: HIV Prevention Trials Network - Laboratory Support for the SARS-CoV-2 Seroprevalence Study (CoVPN 5002)UM1AI068613 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI SUSAN H ESHLEMAN, Mark A Marzinke · 2011 to 2026
$100.2M
UCLA Rapid, Relevant, Rigorous Implementation Science HubP30MH058107 · NIMH · UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA LOS ANGELES · PI Nina Thawata Harawa · 1997 to 2026
$53.5M
Laboratory and Statistical Development of Cross-Sectional HIV Incidence AssaysR01AI095068 · NIAID · JOHNS HOPKINS UNIVERSITY · PI ESHLEMAN, SUSAN H · 2011 to 2021
$6.6M
NIAID NIH HHS R01 AI095068NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068613NIAID NIH HHS UM1 AI068617NIMH NIH HHS P30 MH058107
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

introductionCross-sectional methods can be used to estimate HIV incidence for surveillance and prevention studies. We evaluated assays and multi-assay algorithms (MAAs) for incidence estimation in subtype C settings.

methodsWe analysed samples from individuals with subtype C infection with known duration of infection (2442 samples from 278 adults; 0.1 to 9.9 years after seroconversion). MAAs included 1-4 of the following assays: Limiting Antigen Avidity assay (LAg-Avidity), BioRad-Avidity assay, CD4 cell count and viral load (VL). We evaluated 23,400 MAAs with different assays and assay cutoffs. We identified the MAA with the largest mean window period, where the upper 95% confidence interval (CI) of the shadow was <1 year. This MAA was compared to the LAg-Avidity and BioRad-Avidity assays alone, a widely used LAg algorithm (LAg-Avidity <1.5 OD-n + VL >1000 copies/mL), and two MAAs previously optimized for subtype B settings. We compared these cross-sectional incidence estimates to observed incidence in an independent longitudinal cohort.

resultsThe optimal MAA was LAg-Avidity <2.8 OD-n  +  BioRad-Avidity <95% + VL >400 copies/mL. This MAA had a mean window period of 248 days (95% CI: 218, 284), a shadow of 306 days (95% CI: 255, 359), and provided the most accurate and precise incidence estimate for the independent cohort. The widely used LAg algorithm had a shorter mean window period (142 days, 95% CI: 118, 167), a longer shadow (410 days, 95% CI; 318, 491), and a less accurate and precise incidence estimate for the independent cohort.

conclusionsAn optimal MAA was identified for cross-sectional HIV incidence in subtype C settings. The performance of this MAA is superior to a testing algorithm currently used for global HIV surveillance.

Indexed as

AlgorithmsAdultCross-Sectional StudiesFemaleHIV InfectionsHumansIncidenceMaleSouth AfricaViral LoadCross-sectional incidence testingEpidemiologySouthern AfricaSubtype CWomen

Identifiers

PMID29489059
PMCPMC5829581

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.