ArticleeLife2018
Conjunction of factors triggering waves of seasonal influenza.
Article in eLife, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 29 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
29 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.
- Associations between sunshine and influenza or influenza-like illness, a systematic review and meta-analysis.International journal of biometeorology · 2026Pooled it
- Environmental drivers of influenza A and B: causal analysis and forecasting.BMC public health · 2026Article
- Reconstructing the early spatial spread of pandemic respiratory viruses in the United States.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
- Integrating Surveillance and Stakeholder Insights to Predict Influenza Epidemics: A Bayesian Network Study in Queensland, Australia.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2026Article
- Reconstructing the early spatial spread of pandemic respiratory viruses in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2025Article
- Drug combination-wide association studies of cancer.Communications medicine · 2025Article
- Competition between transmission lineages mediated by human mobility shapes seasonal influenza epidemics in the US.Nature communications · 2025Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.eLife · 2024Article
- Commuting-driven competition between transmission chains shapes seasonal influenza virus epidemics in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Antigenic drift and subtype interference shape A(H3N2) epidemic dynamics in the United States.medRxiv : the preprint server for health sciences · 2024Article
- Spatial Variation in Humidity and the Onset of Seasonal Influenza Across the Contiguous United States.GeoHealth · 2022Article
- The SARS-CoV-2 differential genomic adaptation in response to varying UVindex reveals potential genomic resources for better COVID-19 diagnosis and prevention.Frontiers in microbiology · 2022Article
- Determination of vulnerable regions of SARS-CoV-2 in Malaysia using meteorology and air quality data.Environment, development and sustainability · 2022Article
- Modeling analysis revealed the distinct global transmission patterns of influenza A viruses and their influencing factors.Integrative zoology · 2021Article
- Universal risk phenotype of US counties for flu-like transmission to improve county-specific COVID-19 incidence forecasts.PLoS computational biology · 2021Article
- Analysis of Delayed Vaccination Regimens: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Analysis of Key Factors of a SARS-CoV-2 Vaccination Program: A Mathematical Modeling Approach.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2021Article
- Impact of temperature and relative humidity on the transmission of COVID-19: a modelling study in China and the United States.BMJ open · 2021Article
- Current understanding of the influence of environmental factors on SARS-CoV-2 transmission, persistence, and infectivity.Environmental science and pollution research international · 2021Review
- Transmission-dynamics models for the SARS Coronavirus-2.American journal of human biology : the official journal of the Human Biology Council · 2020Review
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
Abstract
Using several longitudinal datasets describing putative factors affecting influenza incidence and clinical data on the disease and health status of over 150 million human subjects observed over a decade, we investigated the source and the mechanistic triggers of influenza epidemics. We conclude that the initiation of a pan-continental influenza wave emerges from the simultaneous realization of a complex set of conditions. The strongest predictor groups are as follows, ranked by importance: (1) the host population's socio- and ethno-demographic properties; (2) weather variables pertaining to specific humidity, temperature, and solar radiation; (3) the virus' antigenic drift over time; (4) the host population'€™s land-based travel habits, and; (5) recent spatio-temporal dynamics, as reflected in the influenza wave auto-correlation. The models we infer are demonstrably predictive (area under the Receiver Operating Characteristic curve 80%) when tested with out-of-sample data, opening the door to the potential formulation of new population-level intervention and mitigation policies.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.