ArticleMalaria journal2018
Using non-exceedance probabilities of policy-relevant malaria prevalence thresholds to identify areas of low transmission in Somalia.
Article in Malaria journal, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 21 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
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Who cites it
21 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 36 citations in OpenAlex.
- Spatial connectivity in mosquito-borne disease models: a systematic review of methods and assumptions.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Pooled it
- Spatial and spatio-temporal methods for mapping malaria risk: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2020Pooled it
- Spatial and temporal inequalities in malaria incidence and mortality among children aged 0-4 years in Somalia: a subnational analysis, 2010-2019.Tropical medicine and health · 2026Article
- Modelling the spatial variability and uncertainty for under-vaccination and zero-dose children in fragile settings.Scientific reports · 2024Article
- Using model-based geostatistics for assessing the elimination of trachoma.PLoS neglected tropical diseases · 2023Article
- Spatio-temporal modelling of routine health facility data for malaria risk micro-stratification in mainland Tanzania.Scientific reports · 2023Article
- Spatial variation and inequities in antenatal care coverage in Kenya, Uganda and mainland Tanzania using model-based geostatistics: a socioeconomic and geographical accessibility lens.BMC pregnancy and childbirth · 2022Article
- The use of routine health facility data for micro-stratification of malaria risk in mainland Tanzania.Malaria journal · 2022Article
- What is a "high" prevalence of obesity? Two rapid reviews and a proposed set of thresholds for classifying prevalence levels.Obesity reviews : an official journal of the International Association for the Study of Obesity · 2022Review
- Maplaria: a user friendly web-application for spatio-temporal malaria prevalence mapping.Malaria journal · 2021Article
- Article
- Model building and assessment of the impact of covariates for disease prevalence mapping in low-resource settings: to explain and to predict.Journal of the Royal Society, Interface · 2021Article
- Article
- The secondary transmission pattern of COVID-19 based on contact tracing in Rwanda.BMJ global health · 2021Article
- Malaria micro-stratification using routine surveillance data in Western Kenya.Malaria journal · 2021Article
- MBGapp: A Shiny application for teaching model-based geostatistics to population health scientists.PloS one · 2021Article
- Modelling and mapping the intra-urban spatial distribution of Plasmodium falciparum parasite rate using very-high-resolution satellite derived indicators.International journal of health geographics · 2020Article
- Bayesian spatio-temporal modeling of malaria risk in Rwanda.PloS one · 2020Article
- Simulating the council-specific impact of anti-malaria interventions: A tool to support malaria strategic planning in Tanzania.PloS one · 2020Article
- Geostatistical analysis and mapping of malaria risk in children under 5 using point-referenced prevalence data in Ghana.Malaria journal · 2019Article
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Authors and funding
8 authors at 3 institutions in 3 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundCountries planning malaria elimination must adapt from sustaining universal control to targeted intervention and surveillance. Decisions to make this transition require interpretable information, including malaria parasite survey data. As transmission declines, observed parasite prevalence becomes highly heterogeneous with most communities reporting estimates close to zero. Absolute estimates of prevalence become hard to interpret as a measure of transmission intensity and suitable statistical methods are required to handle uncertainty of area-wide predictions that are programmatically relevant.
methodsA spatio-temporal geostatistical binomial model for Plasmodium falciparum prevalence (PfPR) was developed using data from cross-sectional surveys conducted in Somalia in 2005, 2007-2011 and 2014. The fitted model was then used to generate maps of non-exceedance probabilities, i.e. the predictive probability that the region-wide population-weighted average PfPR for children between 2 and 10 years (PfPR
resultsBy 2010, most regions in Somalia were at least 70% likely to be below 5% PfPR
conclusionUnlike standard approaches, non-exceedance probabilities of spatially modelled PfPR
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.