ArticlePharmacoEconomics - open2017
Forecasting Pharmaceutical Prices for Economic Evaluations When There Is No Market: A Review.
Article in PharmacoEconomics - open, 2017. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 4 papers.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
4 citing papers in PubMed.
- The Costs of Industry-Sponsored Drug Trials in Canada.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2020Article
- The Costs of Industry-Sponsored Medical Device Clinical Trials in Alberta.PharmacoEconomics - open · 2019Article
- Authors' Reply to Holko: "Forecasting Pharmaceutical Prices for Economic Evaluations When There Is No Market: A Review".PharmacoEconomics - open · 2017Article
- Comment on: "Forecasting Pharmaceutical Prices for Economic Evaluations When There is No Market: A Review".PharmacoEconomics - open · 2017Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundEconomic evaluation helps policy makers and healthcare payers make decisions on drug listing, coverage, and reimbursement. When economic evaluations are conducted before a product launch, the prices of the pharmaceuticals have to be forecast.
objectiveThe aim of this study was to examine the methods of establishing proxy prices and their accuracies compared with actual market prices after the product launch.
methodsWe searched the literature for evaluations for drugs that were licensed in the US between 2010 and 2015. We reviewed the studies for the forecasting strategies used, and then estimated the difference between actual 2016 post-launch prices and what the proxy prices would be if the forecast was carried out in the US in 2016.
resultsWe identified six such studies, with seven drugs. Four studies used substitute drugs as proxies for the study drug, and three used other methods. The range of the values of actual minus proxy price varied considerably, and no trend was observed.
conclusionForecasting drug prices is as precarious as forecasting in other areas of the economy. We urge caution in reviewing and accepting a cost-effectiveness ratio that is based on forecast prices.
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Registered trials
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