Trial reportBMC nephrology2018
A model to predict disease progression in patients with autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD): the ADPKD Outcomes Model.
Trial report in BMC nephrology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT00428948 (A Phase 3, Multi-center, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel-arm Trial to Determine Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Oral Tolvaptan Tablets Regimens in Adult Subjects With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease), which is not on this map. Cited by 27 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
A Phase 3, Multi-center, Double-blind, Placebo-controlled, Parallel-arm Trial to Determine Long-term Safety and Efficacy of Oral Tolvaptan Tablets Regimens in Adult Subjects With Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease
Who cites it
27 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it, 52 citations in OpenAlex.
- Interventions for preventing the progression of autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.The Cochrane database of systematic reviews · 2024Pooled it
- The long-term effects of dapagliflozin in chronic kidney disease: a time-to-event analysis.Nephrology, dialysis, transplantation : official publication of the European Dialysis and Transplant Association - European Renal Association · 2024Trial
- Tolvaptan for Children and Adolescents with Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease: Randomized Controlled Trial.Clinical journal of the American Society of Nephrology : CJASN · 2023Trial
- Modelling the long-term benefits of tolvaptan therapy on renal function decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease: an exploratory analysis using the ADPKD outcomes model.BMC nephrology · 2019Trial
- Development and Validation of a Multivariable Prediction Model for Kidney Failure in Early Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.Journal of the American Society of Nephrology : JASN · 2026Article
- The Potential of Disease Progression Modeling to Advance Clinical Development and Decision Making.Clinical pharmacology and therapeutics · 2025Review
- The Tumor-Associated Calcium Signal Transducer 2 (TACSTD2) oncogene is upregulated in cystic epithelial cells revealing a potential new target for polycystic kidney disease.PLoS genetics · 2024Article
- Article
- Article
- Single-Center Experience of Pediatric Cystic Kidney Disease and Literature Review.Children (Basel, Switzerland) · 2024Article
- Data driven approach to characterize rapid decline in autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.PloS one · 2024Article
- Calculation of Kidney Volumes with Magnetic Resonance in Patients with Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease: Comparison between Methods.Diagnostics (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- Development and Validation of a Nomogram for Renal Survival Prediction in Patients with Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.Kidney diseases (Basel, Switzerland) · 2023Article
- N6-methyladenine RNA Methylation Epigenetic Modification and Kidney Diseases.Kidney international reports · 2023Review
- Predicting autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease progression: review of promising Serum and urine biomarkers.Frontiers in pediatrics · 2023Review
- A disease progression model estimating the benefit of tolvaptan on time to end-stage renal disease for patients with rapidly progressing autosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease.BMC nephrology · 2022Article
- A Systematic Review of Reported Outcomes in ADPKD Studies.Kidney international reports · 2022Article
- c-JUN n-Terminal Kinase (JNK) Signaling in Autosomal Dominant Polycystic Kidney Disease.Journal of cellular signaling · 2022Article
- Predictors of progression in autosomal dominant and autosomal recessive polycystic kidney disease.Pediatric nephrology (Berlin, Germany) · 2021Review
- Oral delivery of metformin by chitosan nanoparticles for polycystic kidney disease.Journal of controlled release : official journal of the Controlled Release Society · 2021Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
10 authors at 8 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundAutosomal dominant polycystic kidney disease (ADPKD) is the leading inheritable cause of end-stage renal disease (ESRD); however, the natural course of disease progression is heterogeneous between patients. This study aimed to develop a natural history model of ADPKD that predicted progression rates and long-term outcomes in patients with differing baseline characteristics.
methodsThe ADPKD Outcomes Model (ADPKD-OM) was developed using available patient-level data from the placebo arm of the Tolvaptan Efficacy and Safety in Management of ADPKD and its Outcomes Study (TEMPO 3:4; ClinicalTrials.gov identifier NCT00428948). Multivariable regression equations estimating annual rates of ADPKD progression, in terms of total kidney volume (TKV) and estimated glomerular filtration rate, formed the basis of the lifetime patient-level simulation model. Outputs of the ADPKD-OM were compared against external data sources to validate model accuracy and generalisability to other ADPKD patient populations, then used to predict long-term outcomes in a cohort matched to the overall TEMPO 3:4 study population.
resultsA cohort with baseline patient characteristics consistent with TEMPO 3:4 was predicted to reach ESRD at a mean age of 52 years. Most patients (85%) were predicted to reach ESRD by the age of 65 years, with many progressing to ESRD earlier in life (18, 36 and 56% by the age of 45, 50 and 55 years, respectively). Consistent with previous research and clinical opinion, analyses supported the selection of baseline TKV as a prognostic factor for ADPKD progression, and demonstrated its value as a strong predictor of future ESRD risk. Validation exercises and illustrative analyses confirmed the ability of the ADPKD-OM to accurately predict disease progression towards ESRD across a range of clinically-relevant patient profiles.
conclusionsThe ADPKD-OM represents a robust tool to predict natural disease progression and long-term outcomes in ADPKD patients, based on readily available and/or measurable clinical characteristics. In conjunction with clinical judgement, it has the potential to support decision-making in research and clinical practice.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.