Observational studyPloS one2018
Seasonality in trauma admissions - Are daylight and weather variables better predictors than general cyclic effects?
Observational study in PloS one, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers.
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Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed.
- Seasonal and cultural effects on calendar day variations in trauma incidence in Japan.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- Weather patterns forecast the severity of cervical spinal cord injuries.Scientific reports · 2025Article
- The impact of concurrency conflicts on optimal location of air ambulance bases in Norway.Scandinavian journal of trauma, resuscitation and emergency medicine · 2025Article
- Predicting emergency department admissions using a machine-learning algorithm: a proof of concept with retrospective study.BMC emergency medicine · 2025Article
- Saving lives with statistics.Scandinavian journal of trauma, resuscitation and emergency medicine · 2024Article
- A New Approach for Understanding International Hospital Bed Numbers and Application to Local Area Bed Demand and Capacity Planning.International journal of environmental research and public health · 2024Article
- The effect of weather and temporal factors on emergency hand trauma consultations.Archives of orthopaedic and trauma surgery · 2023Article
- Multisite evaluation of prediction models for emergency department crowding before and during the COVID-19 pandemic.Journal of the American Medical Informatics Association : JAMIA · 2023Article
- Study of Epidemiological Characteristics of Fatal Injuries Using Death Registry Data in Georgia.Bulletin of emergency and trauma · 2023Article
- Impact of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) on trauma surgical education at a level I trauma center.Surgery · 2021Article
- Impacts of ambient temperature and seasonal changes on sports injuries in Madrid, Spain: a time-series regression analysis.BMJ open sport & exercise medicine · 2021Article
- Characteristics of traumatic brain injury patients with abnormal neuroimaging in Southeast Norway.Injury epidemiology · 2020Article
- Article
- Real-time forecasting of emergency department arrivals using prehospital data.BMC emergency medicine · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
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Authors and funding
3 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundTrauma is a leading global cause of death, and predicting the burden of trauma admissions is vital for good planning of trauma care. Seasonality in trauma admissions has been found in several studies. Seasonal fluctuations in daylight hours, temperature and weather affect social and cultural practices but also individual neuroendocrine rhythms that may ultimately modify behaviour and potentially predispose to trauma. The aim of the present study was to explore to what extent the observed seasonality in daily trauma admissions could be explained by changes in daylight and weather variables throughout the year.
methodsRetrospective registry study on trauma admissions in the 10-year period 2001-2010 at Oslo University Hospital, Ullevål, Norway, where the amount of daylight varies from less than 6 hours to almost 19 hours per day throughout the year. Daily number of admissions was analysed by fitting non-linear Poisson time series regression models, simultaneously adjusting for several layers of temporal patterns, including a non-linear long-term trend and both seasonal and weekly cyclic effects. Five daylight and weather variables were explored, including hours of daylight and amount of precipitation. Models were compared using Akaike's Information Criterion (AIC).
resultsA regression model including daylight and weather variables significantly outperformed a traditional seasonality model in terms of AIC. A cyclic week effect was significant in all models.
conclusionDaylight and weather variables are better predictors of seasonality in daily trauma admissions than mere information on day-of-year.
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