Evidence map›Paper›PMID 29405612›Full record

ArticlePediatric pulmonology2018

Risk scoring tool to predict respiratory syncytial virus hospitalisation in premature infants.

Maarten O Blanken, Bosco Paes, Evan J Anderson, Marcello Lanari, Margaret Sheridan-Pereira, Scot Buchan, John R Fullarton, ElizaBeth Grubb, Gerard Notario, Barry S Rodgers-Gray and 1 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Pediatric pulmonology, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 27 papers, 3 of them syntheses that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
27citing papers in PubMed, 3 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

27 citing papers in PubMed, 3 syntheses or guidelines pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Pooled it
  3. Guideline
  4. Article
  5. Observational
  6. Respiratory Infant Mortality Rate by Month of Birth in Mexico.Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland) · 2025
    Article
  7. Moderate-to-late prematurity: understanding respiratory consequences and modifiable risk factors.European respiratory review : an official journal of the European Respiratory Society · 2025
    Review
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  16. Article
  17. Article
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  19. Review
  20. Socioeconomic Impact of RSV Hospitalization.Infectious diseases and therapy · 2021
    Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

11 authors.

Maarten O BlankenDivision of Pediatric Immunology and Infectious Diseases, University Medical Center Utrecht, Utrecht, The Netherlands.ORCID 0000-0003-4065-7368
Bosco PaesNeonatal Division, Department of Pediatrics, McMaster University, Hamilton, Canada.
Evan J AndersonDepartments of Pediatrics and Medicine, Emory University School of Medicine, Atlanta, Georgia.
Marcello LanariDepartment of Medical and Surgical Sciences, University of Bologna, Bologna, Italy.
Margaret Sheridan-PereiraDepartment of Paediatrics and Newborn Medicine, Coombe Women and Infants University Hospital and Department of Paediatrics, Trinity College, Dublin, Ireland.
Scot BuchanStrategen Limited, Basingstoke, UK.
John R FullartonStrategen Limited, Basingstoke, UK.
ElizaBeth GrubbHealth Economics and Outcomes Research, AbbVie Inc, North Chicago, Illinois.
Gerard NotarioFormerly Global Pharmaceutical Research and Development, AbbVie Inc, North Chicago, Illinois.
Barry S Rodgers-GrayStrategen Limited, Basingstoke, UK.
Xavier Carbonell-EstranyNeonatology Service, Hospital Clinic, Institut d'Investigacions Biomediques August Pi Suñer (IDIBAPS), Barcelona, Spain.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundThe objective was to develop a risk scoring tool which predicts respiratory syncytial virus hospitalisation (RSVH) in moderate-late preterm infants (32-35 weeks' gestational age) in the Northern Hemisphere.

methodsRisk factors for RSVH were pooled from six observational studies of infants born 32 weeks and 0 days to 35 weeks and 6 days without comorbidity from 2000 to 2014. Of 13 475 infants, 484 had RSVH in the first year of life. Logistic regression was used to identify the most predictive risk factors, based on area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). The model was validated internally by 100-fold bootstrapping and externally with data from a seventh observational study. The model coefficients were converted into rounded multipliers, stratified into risk groups, and number needed to treat (NNT) calculated.

resultsThe risk factors identified in the model included (i) proximity of birth to the RSV season; (ii) second-hand smoke exposure; and (iii) siblings and/or daycare. The AUROC was 0.773 (sensitivity: 68.9%; specificity: 73.0%). The mean AUROC from internal bootstrapping was 0.773. For external validation with data from Ireland, the AUROC was 0.707 using Irish coefficients and 0.681 using source model coefficients. Cut-off scores for RSVH were ≤19 for low- (1.0%), 20-45 for moderate- (3.3%), and 50-56 (9.5%) for high-risk infants. The high-risk group captured 62.0% of RSVHs within 23.6% of the total population (NNT 15.3).

conclusionsThis risk scoring tool has good predictive accuracy and can improve targeting for RSVH prevention in moderate-late preterm infants.

Indexed as

HospitalizationInfant, PrematureRespiratory Syncytial Virus InfectionsArea Under CurveGestational AgeHumansInfantInfant, NewbornLogistic ModelsRespiratory Syncytial Virus, HumanRisk FactorsROC CurveSeasonsSensitivity and SpecificityTobacco Smoke PollutionTobacco Smoke Pollutionbronchiolitislower respiratory tract infectionprematurityrisk assessmentrisk factors

Identifiers

PMID29405612
PMCPMC6099524

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.