ArticleMalaria journal2018
True malaria prevalence in children under five: Bayesian estimation using data of malaria household surveys from three sub-Saharan countries.
Article in Malaria journal, 2018. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 14 papers, 2 of them syntheses that pooled it.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
14 citing papers in PubMed, 2 syntheses or guidelines pooled it, 25 citations in OpenAlex.
- Malaria prevalence in HIV-positive children, pregnant women, and adults: a systematic review and meta-analysis.Parasites & vectors · 2022Pooled it
- Spatial and spatio-temporal methods for mapping malaria risk: a systematic review.BMJ global health · 2020Pooled it
- Malaria infection and predictor factors among Chadian nomads' children.BMC public health · 2024Article
- Malaria amongst children under five in sub-Saharan Africa: a scoping review of prevalence, risk factors and preventive interventions.European journal of medical research · 2023Article
- Prevalence of Malaria and COVID-19 Infection in Akure North Local Government Area of Ondo State, Nigeria.Journal of parasitology research · 2023Article
- A malaria knowledge, attitudes and practice survey in a rural community in Guinea.Malaria journal · 2022Article
- Bayesian network models with decision tree analysis for management of childhood malaria in Malawi.BMC medical informatics and decision making · 2021Article
- Staged progression epidemic models for the transmission of invasive nontyphoidalMathematical biosciences and engineering : MBE · 2021Article
- Prevalence of diarrhoea, acute respiratory infections, and malaria over time (1995-2017): A regional analysis of 23 countries in West and Central Africa.Journal of global health · 2021Article
- Malaria amongst febrile children: call for a pediatric malaria assessment tool.The Pan African medical journal · 2021Article
- Spatial and spatio-temporal analysis of malaria cases in Zimbabwe.Infectious diseases of poverty · 2020Article
- Observational
- Geographical heterogeneity in prevalence of subclinical malaria infections at sentinel endemic sites of Myanmar.Parasites & vectors · 2019Article
- False-negative malaria rapid diagnostic test results and their impact on community-based malaria surveys in sub-Saharan Africa.BMJ global health · 2019Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
11 authors at 5 institutions in 5 countries.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundMalaria is one of the major causes of childhood death in sub-Saharan countries. A reliable estimation of malaria prevalence is important to guide and monitor progress toward control and elimination. The aim of the study was to estimate the true prevalence of malaria in children under five in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Uganda and Kenya, using a Bayesian modelling framework that combined in a novel way malaria data from national household surveys with external information about the sensitivity and specificity of the malaria diagnostic methods used in those surveys-i.e., rapid diagnostic tests and light microscopy.
methodsData were used from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) and Malaria Indicator Surveys (MIS) conducted in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DHS 2013-2014), Uganda (MIS 2014-2015) and Kenya (MIS 2015), where information on infection status using rapid diagnostic tests and/or light microscopy was available for 13,573 children. True prevalence was estimated using a Bayesian model that accounted for the conditional dependence between the two diagnostic methods, and the uncertainty of their sensitivities and specificities obtained from expert opinion.
resultsThe estimated true malaria prevalence was 20% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 17%-23%) in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, 22% (95% UI 9-32%) in Uganda and 1% (95% UI 0-3%) in Kenya. According to the model estimations, rapid diagnostic tests had a satisfactory sensitivity and specificity, and light microscopy had a variable sensitivity, but a satisfactory specificity. Adding reported history of fever in the previous 14 days as a third diagnostic method to the model did not affect model estimates, highlighting the poor performance of this indicator as a malaria diagnostic.
conclusionsIn the absence of a gold standard test, Bayesian models can assist in the optimal estimation of the malaria burden, using individual results from several tests and expert opinion about the performance of those tests.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.